I think we will all know that we have gotten through this crazy real estate market when we can wake up and just get GOOD news. It seems that every day there is some report that we have made it through the crisis. But then the next article says something like "...but don't get too excited because I've got some bad news." Today is a good example. There is an article in the Wall Street Journal with a headline of "Yes, the US Housing Bust is Over" http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702303644004577520414196790098-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwMjExNDIyWj.html?mod=wsj_valetleft_email. But then the same day we get this headline and article from Default Servicing News reporting from RealtyTrac that states "Foreclosure Starts Up for the First time since 2009" http://www.dsnews.com/articles/-2012-07-11. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
My job as a Realtor in Camarillo and the surrounding markets of Ventura County is to educate my clients on the things that are happening in the real estate markets. Well the answer is unclear, but sometimes the best answer really is "I just don't know!" Most of the "experts" believe that we have either hit bottom or are very close to the bottom. But we still have bad news that keeps coming. The Short Sale portion of sales in Ventura County continues to rise. And, while the level of foreclosures as a percentage of the market continues to decline, we got bad news from the same Reaty Trac report outlined above that California's foreclosure rate leads the nation in June of 2012. That certainly means we have more pain to come. Having said all that, I do believe that we are beginning to get close to a "normal" market.
So, what is normal? Well, barring the Mortgage Market Meltdown in 2007 and the preceding unreasonable rise in real estate values, most real estate markets trend pretty closely to the growth of the economy and the rate of inflation. So, when things are going well in the US economy and we are seeing growth and jobs and a little inflation, we are also seeing real estate values grow at a very similar rate. Well, that rate has been out of whack for some time. Now that we are through the worst part of the housing crash and now that we are seeing signs that the economy has begun to have some slow growth, we are beginning to see the relationship between home values and US GDP growth get back into sync.
For those of you who are thinking about selling, I don't feel any different than I did a week or so ago in my previous blog. Inventory is down and there are plenty of good buyers who want to buy your home. This is causing, at least, a temporary increase in home values. If you are a buyer, then stay patient. There are no signs that the increase is going to spike values and all indications are that interest rates aren't going to jump any time soon. So, be ready. Get pre-approved so you know what it is you qualify for. Make sure your Realtor knows exactly what it is you are looking for so that when those properties hit the market, you are ready to act right away.
Have a great day today and make sure you let me know if you want to take advantage of this reduced inventory to sell your home.
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