The stock markets finished the day up 421.28 points yesterday preceded by a good day before that. It was the largest 2 day gain we have seen in over 3 years. So what's everyone so happy about? The Federal Reserve issued their monthly Federal Open Market Committee meeting Press Release where they basically gave all good news.
1. Economic activity is expanding.
2. Labor market conditions continue their improvements.
3. Solid job gains.
4. Lower unemployment rate.
5. Household spending is rising moderately.
6. Businesses are expanding their fixed investments (i.e. their spending money).
7. Recovery in housing continues.
8. Measures of long-term inflation remain stable.
Sounds good to me. There was basically no bad news in the Press Release. But, in addition to that, there were 2 key phrases that the stock market cheered. The first was "The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace...". What this means is that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates low. The stock markets keep thinking that if the economy continues to improve, the supports that the Fed has put in place to carry the economy through the latest recession...mostly keeping interest rates low and buying lots of mortgage-backed securities...will begin to end. Every time the Fed says things will continue, Wall Street looks at it as free money.
The second phrase in the Press Release from December 17th was "...the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy." This means, first, that the current policy isn't normal. For interest rates to be this low and for the Fed to be investing so much money in buying MBS', is unusual. It was a response to an economy in recession. Most are defining now that the Recession began in December of 2007 and ended in June or July of 2009. But, you see, that's really the point. That is really why Wall Street continues to cheer inaction by the Fed. The Recession ended 5.5 years ago and the Fed continues to prop up the economy. There are all sorts of questions as to whether or not the gains in the economy are real are just based on the Fed's loose policy. But that's not what I'm here to answer for today.
The news from the Fed is great for real estate because it means that those First Time Homebuyers who have been sitting on the fence, either because of the lack of confidence in their own job status or because of their doubts about the real estate markets, it gives them more time with lower interest rates to get in the game. This is what will really bring some stability back to the markets. While we have worked through most of the distressed sales (foreclosure activity continues to decline back to normal levels and Short Sale activity continues to decline) the last piece to add to get us back to stable growth is adding this First Time Homebuyer. The Millennials are the ones who don't seem to be participating yet and that is understandable. Millennials were the largest buyers of homes during the most recent housing boom/bust cycle and it would tend to be reasonable to say that they then were the most heavily burned. But even if they did not participate or get burned by the recent market crash, they sure saw the pain first hand. Lack of jobs, moving back in with Mom and Dad, rental rates skyrocketing and heavy Student loan obligations and a continued tight lending market are all reasons for this group to not prioritize housing.
But the Fed's stance on keeping rates low keeps the window open for this group to jump back into a market that has always served our nation and our local communities well. In Ventura County, in cities like Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park and even Westlake Village and Santa Rosa Valley, home-ownership is one of the things that creates stability and community. It is the American Dream. Even though it costs more today than every before, I still believe in the benefits of the American Dream and, apparently, so do the people who serve of the Federal Reserve. We thank you for your patience.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Ventura County Inventory Levels Continue to Rise
Inventory levels of Single-Family homes in Ventura County continues to rise. The number of single-family homes available to purchase in Ventura County is up 37% from the same time a year ago based on the last 12 months of closings.
The number of homes for sale is up by 26% from the same time a year ago and the number of closings is actually down by 18%. So, this gap has created a growing number of homes on the market. We have seen increases in all areas of the housing market with the exception of the market over $1,000,000. The inventory of homes available in this market is flat on a month-to-month basis as well as looking back 12 months. Certainly you know the phrase that "all real estate is local" but that is certainly true here. While these numbers reflect the general trends, your tract, your neighborhood, your city might look different than this. So, if you are located in Santa Rosa Valley or Camarillo or Thousand Oaks or if you are located in The Pinnacle or Village at the Park or Lynnmere or Rancho Santa Rosa, these numbers and this assessment may not apply to you. Call me if you are interested in a more local review of the situation for your particular piece of real estate.
The biggest drop that we have seen in terms of overall activity is one of the things that I have been concerned about (and that we continue to hear about in the news) and that is the entry-level buyer. We keep hearing that first-time homebuyers are not participating in this market and the data would seem to support that claim. Because these buyers are missing from this market, the result has been a decline in the demand for housing in our middle market, where most of activity happens. Just look at the chart below and see the drop we in had in the activity level in sales from $400,000 and below.
This market over the last two years has made up over 32% of the total sales in all of Ventura County, yet in October, it only accounted for just under 18% of our total number of sales. We need to see this market return, otherwise it stagnates the move-up activity and really begins to shut down the real estate markets. In order for this to happen, we will have to see a drop in the First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Index (FTHB HAI). The FTHB HAI is made up of three basic ingredients: Median Home Price, Median Income and Average Mortgage Rates. All three of these have dropped dramatically during the period of time when the real estate/mortgage markets crashed around 2006. The good news is that values and mortgage rates all came down but the problem is that so did the Median Incomes in California. Below, you can see how all three factors were affected during this period of time.
Median Price
Average Mortgage Rates
Median Income
While we have seen the California Median Income recently come up off of its lows, we did not hit the bottom until the 1st Quarter of 2012. In order for things to improve for First-Time Homebuyers in areas like Camarillo and Thousand Oaks and Moorpark and Simi Valley and Oxnard and Ventura, we have to see the Median Incomes rise faster than either Mortgage Rates and/or Median Prices. This means jobs, jobs, jobs! We need better jobs and we need more jobs. We need our college graduates to get to work. Once this starts to improve, I am confident the market will continue to look a lot more normal.
Have a great day and don't forget to let me know if there is anything I can do to help you, your family or friends with any of their real estate needs.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Safety in Real Estate...in spite of our fear!
"Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world." - Franklin D. Roosevelt
It seems like our world these days is so unstable. Maybe it's just me but it seems like everything is in flux. The stock market hits record high and then plunges. Interest rates are at their lowest levels in the history of the mortgage market yet every day we keep hearing they are bound to jump. What happens to the housing market when that happens? Real Estate markets in Ventura County and around the US have plummeted since 2006, hit bottom around 2012, jumped by 20-25% over the next 12 months or so and then have begun to show signs of weakening. ISIS and Al Queda continue to exert their presence on the World's stage causing a heightened sense of fear. And now we need to be concerned about our neighbor or co-worker or my child's friend coming down with Ebola. Peak election season always causes worry because politicians on both side convince us to vote for them or their party because of something we should be afraid of. Fear inspires us. It motivates us to take action...sometimes to act and sometimes to cower. Fear sells. Fear gets our attention because it makes us sit up and listen. Even in Real Estate it works. "Buy now before prices go higher." "Sell now before prices drop even further." "Be aggressive with your offer so that you compete with the multiple buyers." "Take this offer. It might be the only one you get." See how that works? Crazy.
Yet, with all of this fear and instability happening around us, for most of us, we can always find peace and comfort AT HOME. This is the place where we usually find comfort and rest. It's the place we long for. I saw the quote above from FDR and thought it was so true. He was speaking about the economics of HOME and that is certainly true. But, to be honest, most of my clients aren't really thinking about the economics when they walk through the door for the first time. It's more emotional than that. They are asking themselves questions like..."Does it feel right?" Does it fit my family?" Can I see myself here long-term?" "How's the neighborhood?" "How are the schools?" "Does it have a pool?" "Does it have an attached garage with direct access?" "Is the backyard big enough for my kids?" "Is the backyard small enough that I don't have to spend all weekend caring for it?" Each one of us has our own needs when it comes to housing and that is what makes my job enjoyable. Each client has a new set of parameters that create the ideal home and it's my job to get as close to that ideal as possible. Sure, money plays a part. As FDR says, "purchased with common sense" is important. Today I suspect he would replace "paid for in full" with "paid for with financing you can afford". Money is a factor, but once you have hit that parameter, the rest is all emotion.
During the most difficult of times in real estate when values began to plummet in 2006, the thing I had to remind people who were losing their home is that HOME truly is where your heart is. I know it is trite, but it's true. Like any investment, you take risk and most of the time, if you are able to own a home long enough, it will also payoff financially, but when it doesn't you have to remember that HOME is where you are with your family and those who love you.
I hope you find peace today in your HOME. If you are not at "Real Estate peace" and would like help finding it, please call me for an immediate, peaceful, confidential consultation.
Have a great day!
It seems like our world these days is so unstable. Maybe it's just me but it seems like everything is in flux. The stock market hits record high and then plunges. Interest rates are at their lowest levels in the history of the mortgage market yet every day we keep hearing they are bound to jump. What happens to the housing market when that happens? Real Estate markets in Ventura County and around the US have plummeted since 2006, hit bottom around 2012, jumped by 20-25% over the next 12 months or so and then have begun to show signs of weakening. ISIS and Al Queda continue to exert their presence on the World's stage causing a heightened sense of fear. And now we need to be concerned about our neighbor or co-worker or my child's friend coming down with Ebola. Peak election season always causes worry because politicians on both side convince us to vote for them or their party because of something we should be afraid of. Fear inspires us. It motivates us to take action...sometimes to act and sometimes to cower. Fear sells. Fear gets our attention because it makes us sit up and listen. Even in Real Estate it works. "Buy now before prices go higher." "Sell now before prices drop even further." "Be aggressive with your offer so that you compete with the multiple buyers." "Take this offer. It might be the only one you get." See how that works? Crazy.
Yet, with all of this fear and instability happening around us, for most of us, we can always find peace and comfort AT HOME. This is the place where we usually find comfort and rest. It's the place we long for. I saw the quote above from FDR and thought it was so true. He was speaking about the economics of HOME and that is certainly true. But, to be honest, most of my clients aren't really thinking about the economics when they walk through the door for the first time. It's more emotional than that. They are asking themselves questions like..."Does it feel right?" Does it fit my family?" Can I see myself here long-term?" "How's the neighborhood?" "How are the schools?" "Does it have a pool?" "Does it have an attached garage with direct access?" "Is the backyard big enough for my kids?" "Is the backyard small enough that I don't have to spend all weekend caring for it?" Each one of us has our own needs when it comes to housing and that is what makes my job enjoyable. Each client has a new set of parameters that create the ideal home and it's my job to get as close to that ideal as possible. Sure, money plays a part. As FDR says, "purchased with common sense" is important. Today I suspect he would replace "paid for in full" with "paid for with financing you can afford". Money is a factor, but once you have hit that parameter, the rest is all emotion.
During the most difficult of times in real estate when values began to plummet in 2006, the thing I had to remind people who were losing their home is that HOME truly is where your heart is. I know it is trite, but it's true. Like any investment, you take risk and most of the time, if you are able to own a home long enough, it will also payoff financially, but when it doesn't you have to remember that HOME is where you are with your family and those who love you. I hope you find peace today in your HOME. If you are not at "Real Estate peace" and would like help finding it, please call me for an immediate, peaceful, confidential consultation.
Have a great day!
Friday, October 17, 2014
Are US Real Estate Markets really rolling?
Today there was an article by Jason Lange from Reuters that the "U.S. housing recovery rolls on as groundbreaking rises". Here is the link to the article http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSKCN0I619U20141017
The article goes on to explain that people are starting to build again. Normally, people look to this number to dictate whether or not the Housing Markets are strong. Personally, I think there are other indicators of the Housing Market strength than this number. Certainly, by itself, it is meaningless. You have to take into consideration all of the factors before looking at this one number and making a judgement that anything is "rolling" anywhere. Obviously, being a Realtor, I am always looking for good news to share about the real estate markets. We have been through so many years of pain that all signs of good news come with hope. However, given how hard the U.S. Housing market got it, you can't blame me for being a little skeptical about the good news especially when the market seems so fragile. Let me explain.
There are 3 things I am worried about.
1. Yes, values are on the rise.
But, if you look at the data closely, you will see that in Ventura County, the Median Price of single-family homes increased by 43% from December 2011 to July of 2013. Amazing!!! But why did that happen? Was it sustainable? Most of the growth during this time frame came from a massive influx of investor capital not only into Ventura County, but into any real estate market that Wall Street Capital thought could produce a return. Much of this capital was buy and hold strategy taking a lot of the normal inventory off the market permanently, or at least until the strategy turns to "buy-hold-SELL". What happens then? What happens when Wall Street decides that its time to sell these assets? Will there be enough non-Wall Street buyers to sustain prices? Most think that each investor will have their own thoughts and needs on when it is the right time to sell these assets so the impact won't be as great as the increases I have outlined above. Since July of 2013, values are only up 1.3%. This is actually below the rate of U.S. Inflation in August of 2014 of 1.7% as outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Interest rates can't sustain these levels. The article even mentions this when it says that the Housing Market "suffered a setback last year" (right about July of 2013) "when interest rates spiked".
I don't even think we will need a "spike" for rising rates to have an impact on this market. When the average homeowner has a rate of 3.75% on their 30-year mortgage, will they make the same move-up purchase they would have if rates are now 5%? Will the First-Time-Homebuyer be able to even enter the market if rates are at 6%? I suspect not unless the U.S. economy or the DJIA is up significantly to offset the higher rate. We will have to see continued declines in the jobless rate and similar increases in the Labor Force Participation Rate and overall wage growth in order to sustain increasing interest rates.
3. My last concern is the increasing trends we are seeing in the level of available inventory. Inventory of single-family homes in Ventura County is up 58.9% from the same time a year ago. While these levels are historically in line with a healthy real estate market, the increasing trend is far from healthy. What will happen to these inventory levels when we begin to see the homes that are breaking ground now hit the market? With groundbreaking up 6.3%, per the article, I am concerned that the additional increases of homes available for sale will continue to put downward pressure on home values going forward.
On the surface, things are better. I am happy Wall Street money came in and injected the markets with some much needed capital, but let's not be deceived by the reality of the situation. These markets are much more fragile than it appears. If you are thinking about selling or buying in this market, give me a call so we can sort through your goals and how they fit into the existing markets and, remember, all real estate is local, so your specific market might look completely different than the general markets outlined above. Call me anytime for a confidential evaluation. Have a great day!
John Wise
The article goes on to explain that people are starting to build again. Normally, people look to this number to dictate whether or not the Housing Markets are strong. Personally, I think there are other indicators of the Housing Market strength than this number. Certainly, by itself, it is meaningless. You have to take into consideration all of the factors before looking at this one number and making a judgement that anything is "rolling" anywhere. Obviously, being a Realtor, I am always looking for good news to share about the real estate markets. We have been through so many years of pain that all signs of good news come with hope. However, given how hard the U.S. Housing market got it, you can't blame me for being a little skeptical about the good news especially when the market seems so fragile. Let me explain.
There are 3 things I am worried about.
1. Yes, values are on the rise.
2. Interest rates can't sustain these levels. The article even mentions this when it says that the Housing Market "suffered a setback last year" (right about July of 2013) "when interest rates spiked".
3. My last concern is the increasing trends we are seeing in the level of available inventory. Inventory of single-family homes in Ventura County is up 58.9% from the same time a year ago. While these levels are historically in line with a healthy real estate market, the increasing trend is far from healthy. What will happen to these inventory levels when we begin to see the homes that are breaking ground now hit the market? With groundbreaking up 6.3%, per the article, I am concerned that the additional increases of homes available for sale will continue to put downward pressure on home values going forward. On the surface, things are better. I am happy Wall Street money came in and injected the markets with some much needed capital, but let's not be deceived by the reality of the situation. These markets are much more fragile than it appears. If you are thinking about selling or buying in this market, give me a call so we can sort through your goals and how they fit into the existing markets and, remember, all real estate is local, so your specific market might look completely different than the general markets outlined above. Call me anytime for a confidential evaluation. Have a great day!
John Wise
Monday, July 21, 2014
Ventura County Real Estate Update July 2014
Values for Residential homes in Ventura County have remained stable during the last few months with values up only .2% from the same Quarter a year ago. But, there are 2 things that are more interesting about that market that is bound to bring changes in the coming months. First, the Average Price of Homes for Sale, while it is up 1.8% from a month ago, is actually down 23.6% from the same Quarter a year ago. In addition, inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply. This makes for a interesting combination.
The chart above reflects the activity of Homes For Sale and Homes Sold during the last 14 months. You can easily see the sharp increase we have seen since December of 2013 in the number of Homes For Sale. This is relatively normal as December is typically the slowest month for new listings, but the rise in Homes For Sale has not corresponded with the number of Homes Sold...certainly not at the same pace. As a result of that, the inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply. Below is a chart the reflects the rise in inventory levels in Ventura County homes for sale during the same time period as above.
While 2.7 months of inventory is actually a relatively normal number, it is up 78.8% from the same Quarter a year ago. Sharp changes like this is not healthy for any market and it is bound to have an impact one way or another. So, what is that impact going to be? Normally, as suggested above, sharp increases like this to inventory levels with demand staying the same, would normally lead to a decline in values. So, I would be surprised if over the next few months we don't see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold. But, the last chart that you see below reflects the Average Price of Homes in Ventura County that are For Sale and that have Sold. You will see that the changes in the Average Price of Homes For Sale has dropped significantly over time, yet the Average Price of Homes Sold has remained relatively stable. What does this mean? Well, you would normally expect to see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold when you have such a large decline in the Average Price of Homes For Sale. It appears that, in this market, what has changed has been the Seller's expectations. The homebuyer is still willing to pay a fair price for the home, but when prices began to rise a little over a year ago, Seller's thought that we were back in 2005/2006 where prices were just going to continue to increase. Well, as we all know, things are quite different than they were during that time period and there is no longer an endless supply of financing and price increases.
I would anticipate that prices in Ventura County will drop over the next few months and possibly into 2015 as we try to burn off this excess inventory. But, unless we see something dramatic happen in the market place, I would expect that values will continue to get back onto a more normal growth pattern which is something that all of us would like. Both buyers and sellers function better when the markets are more predictable.
If you are thinking about selling your home and you are looking for a listing agent in Ventura County, please don't hesitate to let me know. I would be happy to set up a confidential appointment to review your situation so I can determine if I can help you meet your real estate goals.
You can also find similar information at my website at http://2cidirect.com/ventura-county.asp.
While 2.7 months of inventory is actually a relatively normal number, it is up 78.8% from the same Quarter a year ago. Sharp changes like this is not healthy for any market and it is bound to have an impact one way or another. So, what is that impact going to be? Normally, as suggested above, sharp increases like this to inventory levels with demand staying the same, would normally lead to a decline in values. So, I would be surprised if over the next few months we don't see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold. But, the last chart that you see below reflects the Average Price of Homes in Ventura County that are For Sale and that have Sold. You will see that the changes in the Average Price of Homes For Sale has dropped significantly over time, yet the Average Price of Homes Sold has remained relatively stable. What does this mean? Well, you would normally expect to see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold when you have such a large decline in the Average Price of Homes For Sale. It appears that, in this market, what has changed has been the Seller's expectations. The homebuyer is still willing to pay a fair price for the home, but when prices began to rise a little over a year ago, Seller's thought that we were back in 2005/2006 where prices were just going to continue to increase. Well, as we all know, things are quite different than they were during that time period and there is no longer an endless supply of financing and price increases.
I would anticipate that prices in Ventura County will drop over the next few months and possibly into 2015 as we try to burn off this excess inventory. But, unless we see something dramatic happen in the market place, I would expect that values will continue to get back onto a more normal growth pattern which is something that all of us would like. Both buyers and sellers function better when the markets are more predictable.
If you are thinking about selling your home and you are looking for a listing agent in Ventura County, please don't hesitate to let me know. I would be happy to set up a confidential appointment to review your situation so I can determine if I can help you meet your real estate goals.
You can also find similar information at my website at http://2cidirect.com/ventura-county.asp.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Top 10 Reasons to move to the Los Angeles area
Ya. There are a lot of things about LA that can force people to leave or find homes someplace else. Smog, Taxes, Cost of Living, Traffic. These are the hot buttons for most people. I have lived in and around the LA Area now for all but 6 years of my 47 years (2 in New York and the first 4 that I don't remember in Tucson and Phoenix). I do love LA, but someone asked me the other day "Why?" I didn't really have a good answer because it's not something I consciously ever really spent any time on, but I thought I would spend a few minutes and let you know why.
For some background, I grew up in a place called Northridge which is located in Los Angeles County and a suburb of the City of Los Angeles. I graduated from Pepperdine University where I spent 4 very challenging years having to balance school and Malibu, but I figured things out and decided to move to New York. Lived in New York for 2 years and then came home and spent a short time in Woodland Hills (also an LA suburb) and then moved to Simi Valley which is located in Ventura County (the northwest adjacent County to Los Angeles). After a few years there we moved to Thousand Oaks and then to Camarillo/Santa Rosa Valley that are all located in Ventura County. From my home in Santa Rosa Valley, I can be to the beaches in Malibu, Santa Barbara, Brentwood, LAX Magic Mountain all in about 45 minutes given traffic. But, here are some of the things I love most about living in LA.
10. Travel. By plane - LAX, Burbank Airport are all within Los Angeles County, but it is only a short drive to other major airports in Long Beach, Orange County or Riverside. In addition, there are a multitude of smaller airports that can support your desire to fly in privately in Van Nuys and Camarillo and a whole lot more. But, LAX is a hub to American Airlines, Delta, United, Alaska Air and Horizon Air, but is also a focus for Southwest Airlines, Virgin Air and Allegiant Air. You can also fly from LAX Internationally to wherever it is you want to go. By boat - Cruises to Alaska, Canada's West Coast, Mexico and the Caribbean happen daily out of the ports in San Pedro or Long Beach. But you can also take shorter trips to Catalina Island or sail your own boats docking them in Marina del Rey or Port Hueneme or Ventura. By car - yes, we have lots of cars. But the roads are plenty and the destinations endless.
9. Hollywood. It's got to make anyone's Top 10 list because it is what most people think of when they think of LA, but, to be honest, it's sort of a hassle. Every once in awhile, I will head down there with my family for an event or two, but for the most part, if you have a family, you probably won't be spending much time there. If you are single and hip...there is no better place to be.
These could each be their own blog unto themselves, but I will hit the rest of the list another day, but just so you know what else is to come...
8. Entertainment
7. Food
6. Suburbs
5. Melting Pot
4. Beaches
3. Sports and Sports Teams
2. Opportunity
1. Weather
For some background, I grew up in a place called Northridge which is located in Los Angeles County and a suburb of the City of Los Angeles. I graduated from Pepperdine University where I spent 4 very challenging years having to balance school and Malibu, but I figured things out and decided to move to New York. Lived in New York for 2 years and then came home and spent a short time in Woodland Hills (also an LA suburb) and then moved to Simi Valley which is located in Ventura County (the northwest adjacent County to Los Angeles). After a few years there we moved to Thousand Oaks and then to Camarillo/Santa Rosa Valley that are all located in Ventura County. From my home in Santa Rosa Valley, I can be to the beaches in Malibu, Santa Barbara, Brentwood, LAX Magic Mountain all in about 45 minutes given traffic. But, here are some of the things I love most about living in LA.
10. Travel. By plane - LAX, Burbank Airport are all within Los Angeles County, but it is only a short drive to other major airports in Long Beach, Orange County or Riverside. In addition, there are a multitude of smaller airports that can support your desire to fly in privately in Van Nuys and Camarillo and a whole lot more. But, LAX is a hub to American Airlines, Delta, United, Alaska Air and Horizon Air, but is also a focus for Southwest Airlines, Virgin Air and Allegiant Air. You can also fly from LAX Internationally to wherever it is you want to go. By boat - Cruises to Alaska, Canada's West Coast, Mexico and the Caribbean happen daily out of the ports in San Pedro or Long Beach. But you can also take shorter trips to Catalina Island or sail your own boats docking them in Marina del Rey or Port Hueneme or Ventura. By car - yes, we have lots of cars. But the roads are plenty and the destinations endless.
9. Hollywood. It's got to make anyone's Top 10 list because it is what most people think of when they think of LA, but, to be honest, it's sort of a hassle. Every once in awhile, I will head down there with my family for an event or two, but for the most part, if you have a family, you probably won't be spending much time there. If you are single and hip...there is no better place to be.
These could each be their own blog unto themselves, but I will hit the rest of the list another day, but just so you know what else is to come...
8. Entertainment
7. Food
6. Suburbs
5. Melting Pot
4. Beaches
3. Sports and Sports Teams
2. Opportunity
1. Weather
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