As you can see from above, the chart shows that Ventura County has had some nice increases but there is question over the last few months as to whether that was just a short-term bubble or a sustainable increase. Most would predict that the increases were short-term and that the direction from here on out is the same story everyone has been talking about for years...JOBS! But, before I get there, the other thing that is also beginning to happen is that we are seeing Sellers more optimistic than they have been before. Below you will see a second chart that shows the same information as above (Median Sales Price) but it is compared against Median For Sale. As you will see, at the end of this chart as you move to September, there is a gap that is widening. This shows you that Seller optimism that their house will sell at a higher price is strong.
So that's good news. A healthy real estate market has Seller's optimistic in addition to Buyer's being optimistic. The problem we are having is that that optimism has still not translated into more inventory. The chart below shows Homes For Sale and, as you can see, it has had a similar drop off in the last few months just as values have dropped. Then, directly below that is a chart that shows inventory levels of Active Single-Family Homes for sale in Ventura County as of 10/14/2013. You can see that the numbers here should continue to push values higher. A normal inventory of Active homes should be closer to 3 to 4 months. We are below 1.5 months of Active inventory.
Last week I had an opportunity to hear the Chief Economist from the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young, speak on her projections for California Real Estate in 2014. It was mostly good news. They are projecting that the increases in value that we have seen during the last 12 months will cause a more normalized market to evolve from where we are today. The are projecting that more homes will be sold (3% increase) and values will continue to improve (just over 6%). But she was hedging these bets because we still have so many outside influences. Obviously, if the Federal Budget crisis is not resolved in the next few weeks, it will certainly cause the growth pattern to cease. But, most think that this will get resolved. So, the biggest threat to the real estate markets in California is JOBS! She is still projecting a California unemployment rate of 8.3% at the end of 2014. That is still too high to have any real chance at larger real estate gains. She also believes that inventory levels will begin to rise as we see fewer and fewer investors coming into the market to buy and hold. Depending on how that all plays out, a lowering of demand and increasing inventories are good for buyers but usually not so good for Sellers. Needless to say, there are a lot of moving parts to what is happening these days and I continue to keep my nose to the grindstone helping my clients where they need help.
As I have said in the past and will continue to say..."Your advocacy is my greatest form of advertising!" So, please let ME know if YOU know anyone who is thinking about buying or selling in the near future.
