FEAR DOES NOT DISCRIMINATE!

Normally, I only use this platform to discuss real estate related issues but today just feels right to talk about another issue that has been on my mind.  Fear is an incredible motivator.  Fear can be our greatest protection as it causes our bodies to response to some element that appears to be a threat.  It causes that "fight or flight" response.  Fear can be our greatest creator or fear can destroy our drive.  Fear can motivate us to change or fear can be debilitating.  Fear can turn the strongest of us to jello and it can take the weakest among us to hold the world on their shoulders.

You see, fear doesn't discriminate.  It doesn't care if you are rich or poor, black or white, strong or weak, Christian or Muslim.  Fear takes over our bodies and causes a response.  Fight or flight? Kill or be killed?  Walk away or jump into the fray?  Speak or be spoken to?  Rise up or or accept?  Choose sobriety or addiction?

The great philosopher Walter White said (actually Bryan Cranston said it but I can only imagine him saying it as Walter White), "[Fear] is the real enemy. Get up! Get up in the real world and you kick that bastard as hard as you can right in the teeth."

I was told by someone not too long ago, whom I greatly respect, that you shouldn't tell other people's stories.  It's hard to tell my story without telling other people's stories because every person I interact with, even if it's just for a second, have shaped my own story.  But, today, I have fear.  I have fear that I will someday run out of money.  I have fear that I'm not on the right path.  I fear that my kids have to grow up in a world that is much more difficult than the world I grew up in.  I have fear that I may never impact the world in the way I had imagined I could.  I have fear that I may not be the best husband to my wife, father to my children.  I have fear that my mistakes might outweigh my successes.  I have fear of judgement day. 

Maybe that is the greatest bond each of us have as humans?  Maybe that is what we can all rally around?  America's response to 9/11 is outlined as one time in recent human history where we all came together to fight rather than fly away.  Why?  We all feared that what happened to those in New York might actually happen to us and we wanted to come together to do everything we could to stop it from happening again.  I fear that we are being torn apart by our fear of each other.  Instead, let's see that we are all afraid.  Let's use that fear as a way to come together to acknowledge our fears, to determine what is real and what is fiction.  Maybe, just maybe, we can use it to come together while we continue to bleed in the streets.  

Today, I have a choice.  Do I allow fear to control my circumstances or do I rise up and thrive in the face of "the real enemy"?  Today, I stand up and kick that bastard in the teeth and make my life happen rather than allowing life to happen to me.  Stand up with me today and choose to jump into the fray with your brothers and sisters who share your fears.  

Sure doesn't feel like a bubble!

Over the last few months I have seen a variety of different articles talking about speculation that the real estate market in Southern California and other markets are looking like potential bubble markets.  But, over the last few days, I have had a chance to look at some of the numbers at I thought I would share them with you.  First, below is a chart which outlines the Median Values in Ventura County over the last 15 years.  I have highlighted the time period from approximately 2003 to 2007 where we did experience an actual bubble.
 
If you look at values in May/July of 2001 and compare them to values in May/July 2016, it reflects an unadjusted annual growth rate of 7.4%.  While this is still historically higher growth rate than we have experienced in the past, it is also important to look at recent history for any additional signs.  The average sales price in Ventura County is up only 2% from the same month 2 years ago.  In addition, the average price for July sales in 2016 is actually down by 2.4% from July 2015.  You can see the stability in values in the chart below which outlines the average active list prices and the average sales prices in Ventura County over the last 13 months.


This stability has been nice for everyone after a long time in very unstable markets.  So, where do things go from here.  Well, certainly over the next 3-4 months, I would expect that activity levels would continue to trend lower, active list prices to trend slightly higher to stable and sales price to do the same.  The real question will come post-election to see how the overall economy withstands a presidential election in which nobody appears to happy with their choices.  Having said that, I will say that over the last 12 months, inventory levels based on the number of Closed Sales has run from as low as 1.8 months to as high as only 2.8 months.  These levels are still incredibly low and would normally predict higher values in the near future.

If you would like an evaluation of your specific neighborhood or a valuation on your particular home, please call me ASAP for a confidential evaluation of your property and your real estate goals.  #johnsoldmyhome.