Sure doesn't feel like a bubble!

Over the last few months I have seen a variety of different articles talking about speculation that the real estate market in Southern California and other markets are looking like potential bubble markets.  But, over the last few days, I have had a chance to look at some of the numbers at I thought I would share them with you.  First, below is a chart which outlines the Median Values in Ventura County over the last 15 years.  I have highlighted the time period from approximately 2003 to 2007 where we did experience an actual bubble.
 
If you look at values in May/July of 2001 and compare them to values in May/July 2016, it reflects an unadjusted annual growth rate of 7.4%.  While this is still historically higher growth rate than we have experienced in the past, it is also important to look at recent history for any additional signs.  The average sales price in Ventura County is up only 2% from the same month 2 years ago.  In addition, the average price for July sales in 2016 is actually down by 2.4% from July 2015.  You can see the stability in values in the chart below which outlines the average active list prices and the average sales prices in Ventura County over the last 13 months.


This stability has been nice for everyone after a long time in very unstable markets.  So, where do things go from here.  Well, certainly over the next 3-4 months, I would expect that activity levels would continue to trend lower, active list prices to trend slightly higher to stable and sales price to do the same.  The real question will come post-election to see how the overall economy withstands a presidential election in which nobody appears to happy with their choices.  Having said that, I will say that over the last 12 months, inventory levels based on the number of Closed Sales has run from as low as 1.8 months to as high as only 2.8 months.  These levels are still incredibly low and would normally predict higher values in the near future.

If you would like an evaluation of your specific neighborhood or a valuation on your particular home, please call me ASAP for a confidential evaluation of your property and your real estate goals.  #johnsoldmyhome.