Tuesday, December 31, 2013

New Hope for those who suffered Short Sale or Foreclosure!

Happy New Year!

I just wanted to pass along my thanks to all of you for your support in 2013. It looks like I will close out the year in the Top 3% of all Realtors in Ventura County. When you combine that with the work I have also done in LA County, I am thrilled with the results. Next year my goal is to end up in the Top 1%.

The National Association of Realtors published a report recently Buyer and Sellers and there were some interesting statistics:


  • 42% of buyers found their agent through a referral from a friend or family member.
  • 39% of sellers used an agent referred by a friend or family member.
  • 25% of sellers used the agent that represented them on the purchase.
  • 67% only contacted 1 agent to sell their house.


So, as you can see, you are vitally important to me and I am grateful for those of you who referred me a client last year or used my services again. I can’t do all I do without your support. Thank you!

Potential new crop of buyers? Know anyone with a Short Sale or Foreclosure that is back on their feet for a year or so?

Even though lending guidelines are still very tight these days, we are beginning to see signs that things might be changing. FHA has come out with a new loan program for buyers who have had a Foreclosure, Short Sale or Bankruptcy. The new program is called the "FHA Back to Work Program”. You can find details at the following link, but here are some of the highlights.

http://backtoworkprogram.org/#more_info


  • You have to qualify for the basic FHA Guidelines in terms of income and liabilities.
  • You have to re-establish credit after the problem occurred. This has to include a 12 month record of new, on-time rental housing payments with no delinquencies and no more than 1 30 day late on any other credit.
  • You have to document that your problem occurred because of a financial hardship where your income dropped by 20% or more for at least 6 months.
  • You have to complete HUD-approved housing counseling. (The link above is for a qualified counselor, but there are many others).


If you know anyone who might fit this description, please pass on this information and I can get them connected with someone that can give them more detail.

I hope all of you have a Happy and Safe New Year and a blessed 2014!

Monday, December 23, 2013

What do the Real Estate markets look like for 2014?

At this time of year, everyone has their projections for the coming year. It is always a good chance to look back at what happened and try to figure out what things might look like for the coming future. How often those projections are correct is another story. Who really knows. But, I do think the information can be useful for Sellers and Buyers if you are thinking about plans for your real estate in 2014. Recently, I sent out a link to the projections from the California Association of Realtors. You can check out the tweet at .
For current homeowners, the good news that is coming out of the projections from CAR is that we will continue to see gains in the Median home price. The are projecting an increase 5.9% from $408,600 to $432,800. But, the bad news is that they are projecting a drop in the overall number of sales by 2.6%. This means that we will continue to see fewer sellers and inventory at lower levels. To be honest, I am a little surprised their projections are so rosy on the increases in Median Value. The primary driver of this will be the lower inventory levels because the rest of their projections, quite honestly and a little gloomy. In California, they are projected Job Growth of only 1.9%. This is LOWER than Job Growth projected for the end of 2013 at 2.2%. That's awful news. And, I'm not sure how, but they are also projecting a drop in the Unemployment Rate from 9% to 8.3%. With a projection of a drop in the Job Growth numbers, their Unemployment Rate drop seems aggressive. The other scary factor for Buyers is the projection of 30 year mortgage rates jumping from 4.1% to 5.3%. When you combine the increase in mortgage rates with a projected jump in Median Value, our affordability factor is going to get to a place that will be less healthy than it already is. This will eliminate many buyers from the pool and will result in a decline on the demand side. Again, based on these projections, I am surprised they are projecting any gains on Median Value.

The part that is the most important for the real estate markets to sustain the gains we have seen in 2013, we need to have better Job Growth numbers. The gains that we have seen in the stock market this year with the Dow (as of last Friday) being up by almost 25%, this means that both the consumer and the public companies are and will be feeling much better about finally starting to spend some of the cash and value they have been accumulating over the last few years as they have been hoarding cash. The declines we have seen in interest rates have helped millions of homeowners get into a more comfortable position from a disposable income standpoint, but the reductions in rates are also another reason why the number of sales has been so low. If you are sitting on a house with a 3.5% 15 or 30 year mortgage rate, to move to a bigger house, to a house that is worth more with a house that will have a higher mortgage rate, you will have to be making significantly more money or have a much larger down payment. And, if you are thinking about downsizing, that higher values combined with higher rates might stop you from making that change. In order to see continued gains on the housing front, we will have to continue to see a healthy stock market and a healthier job market in order to offset the increases they are projecting in mortgage rates. It just might take a year for everyone to adjust to the new levels of rates before the market finds its new pattern of stable growth again.

If you own real estate today, I think the chances are pretty good, given our still low levels of inventory, that you will see increases in your house value. I also think that given the low levels of inventory that it will also remain a good time to sell real estate. When inventory levels are low and demand is healthy, it puts Sellers in more control.

If you don't own real estate today and you need to or want to buy a home, my advice to you would be to act sooner rather than later. Hire a Realtor…like me…who is going to work hard on your behalf to find a home that fits your needs.

Call me today if you are thinking about selling or buying this coming year so we can sit down and review a strategy for all your real estate needs.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

John Wise
818-391-4131
jwise@2cidirect.com

Monday, November 25, 2013

Real Estate Inventory Levels Up - Volume Down

For those of you who thought we might be experiencing another Real Estate Bubble like what we saw 7-8 years ago, at the moment, you thought wrong. Values in Camarillo peaked in August with an average at $592,000. Since that time values have come back down to around $520,000 for homes sold during October. We did see inventory levels jump to about twice the levels we saw just 6 months ago, but that has not translated to more volume. See the Inventory Chart below from Trendgraphix. It shows inventory levels of Residential Real Estate from August 2012 to October 2013.


We thought that people who had been waiting to sell would see the increases and get their house on the market to take advantage of the higher prices. That has happened. As you can see from the chart below, another datasource, Clarus MarketMetrics, shows the Median For Sale Price vs. the Median Sold price in Camarillo. And you can see that the gap between what properties are selling for and what properties are listed for is growing. This is bad for existing sellers. It means that many people thought they could overprice their property and let the market keep coming up to them. We haven't seen that prove out in the last 3 months. There either aren't enough buyers or the buyers simply won't pay the higher prices.


Also, we have seen a dramatic rise in the Expired Listings since the beginning of the year. In January, almost no listings were expiring because everything was getting sold. Now, the level has more than doubled as you can see from the chart below.


I expect the next few months to be fairly slow, but then to pick up again in January. If you are thinking about buying a home, these are all good signs for you as we begin to see values softening. More inventory means more choices which, generally speaking, means more affordable real estate. If you have been thinking about selling, this is not great news, but keep in mind that values are still up from last year by 14% in this particular area. In some areas, values are up even higher.


As you probably know…all real estate is local. The information I have shared here is based on the Camarillo Real Estate market. If you would like a more detailed analysis of your particular home, just let me know. I would be happy to provide you with that information.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Monday, October 14, 2013

Ventura County Real Estate Update Fall 2013

Values in Ventura County Real Estate are flat to down over the last 3 months. Good news is values are still up by over 21% from a year ago today based on the current MLS figures.


As you can see from above, the chart shows that Ventura County has had some nice increases but there is question over the last few months as to whether that was just a short-term bubble or a sustainable increase. Most would predict that the increases were short-term and that the direction from here on out is the same story everyone has been talking about for years...JOBS! But, before I get there, the other thing that is also beginning to happen is that we are seeing Sellers more optimistic than they have been before. Below you will see a second chart that shows the same information as above (Median Sales Price) but it is compared against Median For Sale. As you will see, at the end of this chart as you move to September, there is a gap that is widening. This shows you that Seller optimism that their house will sell at a higher price is strong.


So that's good news. A healthy real estate market has Seller's optimistic in addition to Buyer's being optimistic. The problem we are having is that that optimism has still not translated into more inventory. The chart below shows Homes For Sale and, as you can see, it has had a similar drop off in the last few months just as values have dropped. Then, directly below that is a chart that shows inventory levels of Active Single-Family Homes for sale in Ventura County as of 10/14/2013. You can see that the numbers here should continue to push values higher. A normal inventory of Active homes should be closer to 3 to 4 months. We are below 1.5 months of Active inventory.



Last week I had an opportunity to hear the Chief Economist from the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young, speak on her projections for California Real Estate in 2014. It was mostly good news. They are projecting that the increases in value that we have seen during the last 12 months will cause a more normalized market to evolve from where we are today. The are projecting that more homes will be sold (3% increase) and values will continue to improve (just over 6%). But she was hedging these bets because we still have so many outside influences. Obviously, if the Federal Budget crisis is not resolved in the next few weeks, it will certainly cause the growth pattern to cease. But, most think that this will get resolved. So, the biggest threat to the real estate markets in California is JOBS! She is still projecting a California unemployment rate of 8.3% at the end of 2014. That is still too high to have any real chance at larger real estate gains. She also believes that inventory levels will begin to rise as we see fewer and fewer investors coming into the market to buy and hold. Depending on how that all plays out, a lowering of demand and increasing inventories are good for buyers but usually not so good for Sellers. Needless to say, there are a lot of moving parts to what is happening these days and I continue to keep my nose to the grindstone helping my clients where they need help.

As I have said in the past and will continue to say..."Your advocacy is my greatest form of advertising!" So, please let ME know if YOU know anyone who is thinking about buying or selling in the near future.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Inventory Levels Finally Starting to Rise

It has been quite some time that inventory levels have been at the rock bottom. Over the last 60 days, we have seen more and more homeowners decide to take advantage of the increase in value and get their home on the market. As you will see below, Ventura County Inventory levels for Single Family Homes under $1,000,000 are up by 46%. That's right...46% from 6 months ago.



At the same time, we are also seeing values begin to come down again from their peak a few months ago. For the same category of homes, see the chart below for the Median Values in Ventura County for homes under $1,000,000.



Similarly, inventory in Camarillo is up by 28% over the last 6 months and moving in the right direction.



And the same holds true for the values in Camarillo of Single Family Homes under $1,000,000. Values are still up by 10% from a year ago, but the are down from the highs we have seen over the last few months.



I share all of this with you to say that, if you have been thinking about selling your home, it is still a good time, but I would not wait long, otherwise, you might miss this window. For buyers, the price declines are a good sign that this is not a long-term bubble.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in the next 90 days, please call me to discuss your options.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Case-Shiller Home Index - Highest Levels in 5 years!!!

Case-Shiller Index came out recently and as you will see from the chart below, the 20-City Index is now showing that values in these markets are now back to levels we saw almost 5 years ago.


For those of you that have been paying attention, this should not come as any surprise. Values have been on the rise in the last 6 to 9 months for many reasons, but the sharp increase off the bottom has many worried that this is also a bubble that is going to pop just like it did back in 2006/2007. For those of you who want to be frightened by the current market and its similarity to 2005, check out this article from DSNews http://www.dsnews.com/articles/commentary-dj-vu-all-over-again-2013-08-23.

My own feeling is that this jump off the bottom was inevitable. So many people had been waiting and waiting to buy that once it appeared we had it the bottom, there was bound to be an increase. I do expect that the big increases will slow down over the the next quarter as we move into the Fall and Winter seasons which are typically slower because people are paying attention to getting back into their lives after summer and then the business of the Holiday Season. But in addition to that, we are starting to see inventory levels rise and that will also begin to slow things down. As more and more property becomes available to sell, the competition to buy those properties is beginning to wade. I have taken more calls in the last 2 months from people that tell me "I think its finally time for me to sell." that I have at any time in the last 7 years.

Most of the time, when you have a bubble that is ready to pop, it is because it has become bigger than it should be. Outside influences that aren't normal and pressuring it to go higher and higher. In this market, I think the values have risen for good reasons, normal reasons. Buyers looking for opportunities to own a home, move up or finally buy that rental property. Investors looking to buy low and sell high. The only unnatural element is the subsidized interest rates. As we see those rise, and the first step has already begun, it will also put pressure on values increases to slow down or stop. But, it appears that we are now in a market that is still favorable to Sellers who now have values back at levels that many thought they would never see again, and for Buyers who can still take advantage of lower borrowing costs and values that are still increasing.

If you need any help or would like a confidential review of your situation, I would look forward to hearing from you. Have a great day!

Monday, July 1, 2013

Is now a good time to sell your home?

For many of you, the real estate market drop since the mortgage crisis has put your home sale on hold.  With values down on average by 35%, it was hard for people to give up on the equity they had built over time and walk away with nothing or, at the best, a lot less equity than they thought they would have when it came time to sell.  As a result, if you could make it through the tough times of this cycle and hang on to your real estate, you are feeling much better today about your valuation.  If you haven't checked lately, call me for an update on what your property might be worth in this market. (Or you can go to this link http://2cidirect.com/home_values.asp and I will get you the information you need.)

The latest reports from zillow.com is that we still have 13 million homeowners (over 25% of all homeowners with a mortgage) across the country who are still not regained an equity position.  The good news is this is down 31.4% from the 1st Quarter of 2012.  Even better news is the way the report is calculated.  Zillow does a good job of tracking trends, but any time you have a quickly moving market, it doesn't take into consideration those trends.  So, when the market is jumping like it is, the trending is slow to report it.  And, with values rising over the last 6 months as quickly as it has, I guarantee these numbers will be getting better the next time Zillow reports.

So, more of you have equity and because of that we are beginning to see more move-up buyers.  Over the last 6 or 7 years since the crash, we have only seen "move-out" sellers.  The only "move-up" sellers had a good equity position to begin with or had cash to make the investment and, many, held on to their existing homes to rent them until the market turned around.

Most people in real estate say that the number factor in valuation is location, location, location.  While location is certainly important to your specific valuation, market cycles are determined by the basics of Supply and Demand.  Let's look more closely at these factors.

Supply.  This has been a key factor in rising values.  During this period of time, because so many have negative equity and because our economy has not been producing enough jobs to drive down the unemployment rate home sales have been dominated by those who have been forced to move.  Short Sale, Foreclosure, job relocation, death and divorce dominated the Sellers.  As a result, there has been very little inventory on the market.  In Ventura County, for Single Family homes under $1.0 million, we still only have apx. 1.1 months of inventory on the market.  A normal market would have 2 to 3 months of inventory.

Demand. This has also contributed to rising values.  As the economy and values have stabilized, so many first-time homebuyers that were sitting on the sidelines have finally decided it is time to jump in while times are still good and values are relatively still low.  Secondly, any time you have a cycle that appears to be at the price bottom, smart investors will be sure to jump in and that has certainly happened with regard to the real estate markets.  Investor demand has been high and that increased demand has made it very hard for normal sellers to compete with because they are usually buying with "all-cash".

So, with all that, why sell today if values appear to be on the rise?

First, interest rates over the last few months are up by over .5% and I have heard more stories than I would like to tell of buyers who did not have their loan locked, rates went up and now they don't qualify for the purchase that they were under contract for.  This increase will certainly eliminate some from the market and, for the short term, should also cause a some to jump in thinking that the low rates are over and "I need to get something done now".

Second, as values continue to increase, you will begin to see more move-up buyers and as this happens, we will begin to see inventory levels rise.  We have already seen that here in Ventura County. Month-over-Month, we have seen a 30% rise in Single-Family inventory levels just in the last 30 days for homes valued under $1.0 million.  This increase in inventory levels will cause pressure on value increases as there is more options for buyers.

Third, investor demand is beginning to wane.  With values up in Ventura County by 18% from a year ago and rents virtually stable (maybe up 2% to 3%) the returns for investing in real estate is much less attractive than it was 6 months ago.

And, lastly, there are always more buyers in the Summer months.  This trend is true in most normal markets.  While buyers don't stop during the holidays, many families that don't accomplish their purchase by the end of summer have a tendency to put it on the back-burner until the holidays are complete or until the next school year begins to wind down again.

All of these things say to me that this is a great time to sell your home.  The market needs you. If you have been thinking that it might be time...it probably is.  Now is a good time to sell, so call me today for a confidential evaluation of your home and your situation so you and your family can take advantage of this market.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

New Home Sales at 5 year high!

30 Second Real Estate Update

New Homes Sales at highest level since 2008 and consumer confidence highest level in 5 years.  These are all good news for Current Homeowners and potential Sellers in this market, but there are indicators on the horizon that these large increases won't last.

Interest Rates are rising. We have certainly seen the bottom, at least for now.  As rates continue to rise, it will make home ownership less affordable relatively speaking.  This will cause some pressure on the demand side.

Investor appetite also appears to be fading.  In the markets like Southern California where we have seen a dramatic rise in values, that eats into returns for investors who are wanting to buy and hold.  It also diminishes opportunity for those who were in the market of buying and flipping.  This will also impact the demand side of the business.

These are just two of the things that should begin to stabilize market values.  So, if you are thinking about selling, now is still a really good time to do so.  Call me to set up a private, one-on-one real estate strategy session today.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Real Estate Values Up 22% from 2 years ago

Real Estate Values are up 22% in Ventura County from 2 years ago.  There are many reasons why that is the case which we will evaluate over the next few weeks.  Have a great real estate day!
http://viddy.it/zOIM1w

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

What if?


My focus for this blog is usually to update my friends, family, clients and others on what is happening in the world of real estate.  But today, I just felt moved to share a different topic with everyone.  

I just had the chance to listen to the new single by my friend @johnondrasik called "What If".  He is the classic American story. His whole life he had a dream! He stayed focus on that dream, worked hard and has now found success...as a Father! Oh yes, he's also a successful musician and an example to us all through his lyrics and his actions. I am proud of him and am not surprised at his latest song.  As art goes, it can always be interpreted in many ways, but the theme is consistent with a book I am reading now called "Peace Be Upon You" by Zachary Karabell. In this book he describes so many times in human history when Muslims, Christians and Jews have come together, in peace, to make their lives and the lives of those around them a better. He describes in these times were these very different groups have come together to live in peace. He believes that "there is a possibility of peace and constructive coexistence between Muslims, Christians, and Jews - and more to the point, between believing Muslims, Christians, and Jews who, in their heart of hearts, think that their creed and their creed alone reflects God's will."

We are a divided country in a divided world. We segregate ourselves into pockets of those that are most familiar with us and to us.  Families, religions, nationalities, race, color, political affiliations, economics, sexuality, education, etc. Some of these groups outline very real differences in how and what people believe, but many times these differences are perceptions that have been developed over time that take hold in our hearts and in our minds and in our societies and they become very difficult to break. John's new song asks a new question. "What if?" Maybe this question has been around for all of human history and this is what has caused these walls to break down over time.  But, in these times where it seems there is discontent and separation at every turn, it feels like a new question. "What if?" "What if I had your heart? What if you wore my scars? What if you were me and what if I were you? What if I cried with your eyes?" 

I believe that this is it. These are the things that bring us together. We pump the same blood, we cry the same tears, we scar the same scars. We all want to love and be loved. All the rest is just noise. What would happen in this world if we spent more time focussing on the things that we have in common. Start each new day believing that my brother, my neighbor, my co-worker, my enemy, my congregation have so many things in common. What would happen in this world? 

Is it possible? Is it possible to come together first before we begin to see where things are so different? I know its utopia and I know that I am a dreamer, but I believe its possible. We will always fight for the things that we believe in. We will always stand up to protect those that we love. But if first we focus on the things that we have in common, it might change our approach, it might change our world. So I join @johnondrasik by encouraging you to "Take a chance for a minute, jump in it, imagine if you asked yourself for a minute...What if?" 

You can find John's new song on iTunes at http://ow.ly/lXuz2 OR at http://www.fiveforfighting.com 

Have a great day!

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Ventura County Inventory Levels are Rising!

Is the rush finally over? Is this bubble starting to lose steam?

Core Logic came out today with a report stating that its index had the strongest gain since 2006.  There data suggests that year-over-year gains in thier index are 10.2% from March 2012 to March 2013.  That's right...2006.  Remember the days of 2006? That was the peak of the bubble.  Because of a lack of inventory and high demand from investors and regular buyers, values have been on the rise.

However, for the first time in a while, we are beginning to see cracks in the inventory numbers.  There are pockets of inventory in Camarillo where we are beginning to see a rise.  In Camarillo, values from $400,000 to $650,000 inventory is up 16%.  In all of Ventura County we are seeing increases in all categories except for single family homes from $250,000 and under.  Now, having said that, the numbers are still very, very low.  For single family homes in Ventura County under $1,000,000, inventory levels of homes on the Active market is still less than 1 month.  Normal markets would see inventory levels about 3 to 4 months.

Image

This is still a Sellers market, so if you have a friend who is thinking about selling, make sure you have them call me right away to make sure they don't miss this attractive time for them to be selling.  You never know when this market will shift again.

Friday, April 26, 2013

April 26 Real Estate Market Update - Sellers Market ending

April 26 Real Estate Market Update - Sellers Market ending

Recent reports show that price gains may be slowing and that inventory levels are beginning to bottom out.  When you combine that with higher interest rates coming in 2014, it appears that this summer may be the end of the current Seller's Market.

Monday, April 22, 2013

April 22 Real Estate Update

April 22 Real Estate Update

Inventory levels are beginning to rise at the national level.  Inventory was up 1.6% in March from the month prior. Those small increases will begin to have an impact on the rate of increase we have seen recently.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

April 18th 30 Sec Real Estate Update

http://www.viddy.com/1wisedad/v/april-18-30-sec-real-estate-market-update-price-up-Cpa4OY 

Fannie Mae announced in their most recent economic report that the real estate recovery is "more robust" than they anticipated and that they are now projecting real estate values to increase by 5.1% over the next year.  In Ventura County we have already seen a spike in rates with real estate values up over 10% from a year ago.  In Camarillo, values have increased by over 13% from a year ago.  See the chart below.  

 Image

These are welcomed gains, but when you put this in perspective with where we have come from, it just appears as a good sign.  The chart below gives you a little deeper look at home prices in Camarillo over an extended period of time.  

Image

 

The question is how long can the markets sustain that type of growth in spite of the overall economy.  At some point this year or beginning of next we are expecting inventory levels to begin to rise.  In addition, we also anticipate that interest rates are likely to increase in 2014.  These changes will certainly lead to slower growth.  So, if you are considering selling your home in Camarillo or the surrounding Ventura County or Los Angeles County market, now may be the right time to get the premium you have been needing to move on or move up.  Call me if that time is now for you.  

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

April 16 30 Sec Real Estate Update FC's up!

April 16 30 Sec Real Estate Update FC's up!

April 16 30 Sec Real Estate Update - Foreclosureradar.com is reporting that foreclosure activity is up 72.5% from January 2013. Numbers are still lower than they were a year ago, but it is a disturbing trend that we need to keep an eye on.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

April 10 - 30 Sec Daily Market Update

http://www.viddy.com/1wisedad/v/april-10-30-second-real-estate-market-update-jOF7tV April 10 - 30 Sec Daily Market Update

The National Association of Realtors is reporting that the 71% of the lenders they surveyed believe that the recent trends of increasing real estate values is a sustainable trend into the near future.  It's always good with a majority of the lenders believe that values will be improving.  Usually that means they will follow suit with lowering their underwriting standards.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

April 9 - 30 Sec. Real Estate Market Update

April 9 - 30 Sec. Real Estate Market Update

Housing inventories beginning to rise!  Good sign for buyers this summer and a sign that we should see prices stabilize in the near future.

Friday, April 5, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 5

http://www.viddy.com/1wisedad/v/30-sec-real-estate-market-update-for-friday-april-8AYJp6

For those of you who are frustrated trying to buy a house, make sure you get pre-approved with a lender who you trust and who can respond quickly. Make sure you submit an offer with a pre-approval that matches or exceeds your offer.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

30 Second Real Estate Market Update - April 3

http://viddy.it/UC808W

Frustrated buyer tip #3. Don't ask for closing costs in this market.  The seller will just view it as a lower asking price.

John Wise

Camarillo Inventory...should bring more Sellers soon!

With the type of price increases we are seeing in the Camarillo area as well as the surrounding markets in the Conejo Valley and great Ventura County, it is bound to bring more Sellers to the market.  The inventory levels are still very low as you will see from the chart below.  

Image

 

This chart shows Active Inventory based on the MLS compared to sales for the last 12 months of Single Family homes. Below $1,000,000 there is less than 1 month of inventory.  This bodes well for Sellers of Camarillo property, but for some reason, many have not taken advantage of this opportunity. As we see more and more homes climb their way back into an equity position, we are sure to see more Sellers in this market.  Once people realize that values have spiked again, you will have more homeowners begin to take advantage of the market shift back to a Sellers market.  Take a look at the Median prices in Camarillo over the last 12 months.  

Image

 

Part of the reason for the price increases is the fact that few units are being sold.  As you will see from the next chart below, over the last 3 months, the number of sales from $1,000,000 and below is on the decline.  Some of this has to do with the lack of inventory, but I would also suggest that as prices continue to increase, the investor demand will begin, and has already, begun to wane.  

Image

Don't wait for this window to close if you are thinking about selling your home in the next 6 months, call me right away to take advantage of this market dynamics. 

John Wise, Broker/Owner, 2ci Direct Real Estate Services

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 2, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 2, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 2, 2013. Make sure your offer price isn't too low. This is a Seller's market and you need to stay aggressive if you want to buy a house.

Investor demand driving values up...but not for long!

As I have been saying for some time now, with demand very high, interest rates at still all time lows and inventory levels still at the bottom, I am not surprised by the rising real estate values.  The big question is...will it last?  In one area of Camarillo, CA called Village at the Park, where the average value is somewhere around $600,000 for a Single Family home, values are up apx. 18% from the same time a year ago. This is not uncommon in Wood Ranch, Thousand Oaks, and other areas around Ventura County.

The benefits of these rising prices is obvious and, for the most part, good for everyone.  The biggest benefit is that it is making all the current homeowners feel better about their own financial position.  This feeling of wealth is showing up in Consumer Spending and in people's overall mindset about the future growth of our economy. This confidence has led to record highs on the stock market and has led millions of homeowners out from their negative equity position into the positive territory again.  However, what we don't want is another bubble in the real estate markets.  Its been about 7 years since the real estate markets began to crash so we are finally beginning to see a turnaround and, again, growth is good...a bubble is bad.  Because we all know what happens to bubbles eventually.

So what are the risks?  First, Case-Shiller says that investor demand has made up close to one-third of all home sales in this recent recovery. They have come into the market for the same reason most investors come into any market. Returns and growth. When values were still low, and rents were still rising, it was an investor no-brainer. Buy it at the right price, rent it and achieve returns that out-perform the rest of the current market.  In addition, if the market continues to rise, you also get the benefit of being able to sell the asset at a higher price at some point in the future. Eventually this will begin to fade and we have already begun to see signs that this part of the recovery is beginning to fade.  With values up in Camarillo 20% from a year ago and rental rates beginning to stabilize, the investor returns have begun to tighten. So, most predict that this portion of the market will begin to slow down quite a bit in markets like this one where prices have risen at a level higher than the rest of the country.

The second risk is rising interest rates.  The Fed has committed to keeping rates low through next summer, but if the economy catches any momentum, don't be surprised if these rates start to go up sooner rather than later.  We have already seen a small increase in mortgage rates even without the Fed making any changes.  As the economy finds some traction, mortgage rates are bound to go up. However, most don't project any spike in rates, but more of a normal up tick as the overall economy improves.

The third risk to the markets has to do with problems overseas.  We have nuclear threats in North Korea and in Iran. The Middle East still appears to be a time bomb. But, to be honest, I'm just not smart enough to know how any of that might affect our local real estate values.  I just know that if we enter World War III because one of the countries decides to drop a bomb, it won't be helpful to anyone.

Now the good news.  Obviously, for current homeowners, the increase in values is refreshing.  After years and years of getting bad news about your real estate, we finally have some reasons to celebrate. Second, it appears that lending standards may finally be loosening.  Lenders are increasingly approving lower down payment loans and the larger government-sponsorded entities, FNMA and FHLMC are now buying more of these loans. You still have to provide your life history to get the loans, but at least we are beginning to see a thawing of residential credit in the US.  Now, what we don't want is to go back to the unreasonable standards that got us into this mess, but certainly a reasonable shift is welcomed.  In addition, begin to worry again if the President starts talking about trying to figure out a way for everyone to own a home.

Second piece of good news that we had this week is a report by the Pulte Group that "nearly two-thirds of millennials expressed an increased interest in buying" a home. During the most recent down cycle, this group really had no reason to invest in this market.  But now that they have seen values improving the Pulte Group study shows that "65 percent of renters between ages 18 to 34 plan to buy a home in the near future". This is probably the best news I have heard in a long time because when you add into this market the normal first time homebuyer, it means we should be back on our way to some normalcy.  First time home buyers buying non-distressed homes with equity means we are likely to have first time move up buyers buying their second home. And when that happens, then we begin to see growth again all the way up to the luxury home market.

Anyway, that's enough information for one blog post. I hope it was good and useful information. If you are curious as to whether or not you have more equity than you realized, or you are thinking about selling your home in this market, I would be honored to talk to you about it. I look forward to hearing from you.

Monday, April 1, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 1, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - April 1, 2013

In this tight real estate market, the first thing you can do is to make sure you do everything the listing agent wants you to do.  So, if you need to get pre-approved with their lender...do it. If you need to submit the offer via email and not fax...do it. If you need to fill out a form a certain way...do it.  Make sure you have a good Realtor...like me...who can make sure they do things exactly as the agent has outlined.

Friday, March 29, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - March 30, 2013

30 Sec Real Estate Market Update - March 29, 2013

http://www.viddy.com/video/2b9b6081-ec4f-4199-8add-d36600243b07

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

30 Sec Daily Market Update for March 26th, 2013

30 Sec Daily Market Update for March 26th, 2013

Trulia's 2013 Winter Buy vs. Rent report states that it costs 44% less to Own a home than it does to Buy a home.  In Ventura County that difference is 36% less.

Monday, March 25, 2013

Daily Market Update Monday, March 25, 2013

Daily Market Update Monday, March 25, 2013

Daily Market Update Monday, March 25, 2013 - Inventory levels are beginning to rise nationally for the first time since July 2012.  Is this the first sign the values are beginning to slow down again?

Monday, March 4, 2013

Camarillo Real Estate Inventory remains at low levels

The level of inventory in the Camarillo and Ventura County real estate markets continues to run at an extremely low level.

Inventory

As you can see from the data above (which was taken from the local mls), in both Camarillo and Ventura County there is less than 1 month of inventory of single-family homes on the Active Market for properties less than $1.0 million.  In Camarillo at the moment, there are only 10 single family homes priced under $400,000 in Active Inventory. In all of Ventura County there are fewer than 100 single family homes on the Active market.  That's the entire county.  This is bad news for so many of you who are wanting to buy a home because it means competition will be fierce in the near future.  But, for Seller's things are looking up.  Values continue to rise and nothing seems to be getting in the way of that.  We've even made it through the tax hikes in January and the Sequester without the stock market taking much of a hit. However, it's my sense that the markets could begin to wobble down the road a few months once we start seeing whether or not these two items will have any real impact on the economy as a whole.

I do know that I have had a few buyers cancel showings due to furlough activity at the base.  Eventually that will lead to a slowdown in our growth.

So, my advice to anyone who is thinking about selling their home in Camarillo or Ventura County...don't wait.  Take advantage of this opportunity before the window closes.