tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47827353822525027412024-02-20T22:39:21.809-08:002ci Direct BlogBlogging about real estate issues in Ventura County and Los Angeles County. Follow me by email by entering your email in the box below. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-30808952270619811962016-09-21T11:23:00.002-07:002016-09-21T11:23:57.069-07:00FEAR DOES NOT DISCRIMINATE!Normally, I only use this platform to discuss real estate related issues but today just feels right to talk about another issue that has been on my mind. Fear is an incredible motivator. Fear can be our greatest protection as it causes our bodies to response to some element that appears to be a threat. It causes that "fight or flight" response. Fear can be our greatest creator or fear can destroy our drive. Fear can motivate us to change or fear can be debilitating. Fear can turn the strongest of us to jello and it can take the weakest among us to hold the world on their shoulders.<br />
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You see, fear doesn't discriminate. It doesn't care if you are rich or poor, black or white, strong or weak, Christian or Muslim. Fear takes over our bodies and causes a response. Fight or flight? Kill or be killed? Walk away or jump into the fray? Speak or be spoken to? Rise up or or accept? Choose sobriety or addiction?<br />
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The great philosopher Walter White said (actually Bryan Cranston said it but I can only imagine him saying it as Walter White), "[Fear] is the real enemy. Get up! Get up in the real world and you kick that bastard as hard as you can right in the teeth."<br />
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I was told by someone not too long ago, whom I greatly respect, that you shouldn't tell other people's stories. It's hard to tell my story without telling other people's stories because every person I interact with, even if it's just for a second, have shaped my own story. But, today, I have fear. I have fear that I will someday run out of money. I have fear that I'm not on the right path. I fear that my kids have to grow up in a world that is much more difficult than the world I grew up in. I have fear that I may never impact the world in the way I had imagined I could. I have fear that I may not be the best husband to my wife, father to my children. I have fear that my mistakes might outweigh my successes. I have fear of judgement day. </div>
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Maybe that is the greatest bond each of us have as humans? Maybe that is what we can all rally around? America's response to 9/11 is outlined as one time in recent human history where we all came together to fight rather than fly away. Why? We all feared that what happened to those in New York might actually happen to us and we wanted to come together to do everything we could to stop it from happening again. I fear that we are being torn apart by our fear of each other. Instead, let's see that we are all afraid. Let's use that fear as a way to come together to acknowledge our fears, to determine what is real and what is fiction. Maybe, just maybe, we can use it to come together while we continue to bleed in the streets. </div>
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Today, I have a choice. Do I allow fear to control my circumstances or do I rise up and thrive in the face of "the real enemy"? Today, I stand up and kick that bastard in the teeth and make my life happen rather than allowing life to happen to me. Stand up with me today and choose to jump into the fray with your brothers and sisters who share your fears. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-55228102394139331672016-09-07T14:43:00.000-07:002016-09-07T14:43:20.505-07:00Sure doesn't feel like a bubble!Over the last few months I have seen a variety of different articles talking about speculation that the real estate market in Southern California and other markets are looking like potential bubble markets. But, over the last few days, I have had a chance to look at some of the numbers at I thought I would share them with you. First, below is a chart which outlines the Median Values in Ventura County over the last 15 years. I have highlighted the time period from approximately 2003 to 2007 where we did experience an actual bubble.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGf7AWuG-_uDCDh61MTIKJPr0W8BjwpcaPwfOOs_9bgAf8STVs6MTQjgqlzfuJlNEHgmD5vHhfdfEfxcwT-pYMr-qvYPniX-QrhT7RhAZTuOs-ZTM7ObFsAtjjAOdCB4mBG6IyM-OMtk2r/s1600/TGChartImage.jpeg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGf7AWuG-_uDCDh61MTIKJPr0W8BjwpcaPwfOOs_9bgAf8STVs6MTQjgqlzfuJlNEHgmD5vHhfdfEfxcwT-pYMr-qvYPniX-QrhT7RhAZTuOs-ZTM7ObFsAtjjAOdCB4mBG6IyM-OMtk2r/s640/TGChartImage.jpeg" width="640" /></a><br />
If you look at values in May/July of 2001 and compare them to values in May/July 2016, it reflects an unadjusted annual growth rate of 7.4%. While this is still historically higher growth rate than we have experienced in the past, it is also important to look at recent history for any additional signs. The average sales price in Ventura County is up only 2% from the same month 2 years ago. In addition, the average price for July sales in 2016 is actually down by 2.4% from July 2015. You can see the stability in values in the chart below which outlines the average active list prices and the average sales prices in Ventura County over the last 13 months. <br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeH_gyVcMnCSoyfQFUYYO47Bwa6abvRghoG-J_ZA1FO3rdBtBeELJ-ZFb8uLiA_tomiqqfeC5UxbvCKWk0fiY7GkVGjOQIdjNVrJOnsnJGDTtfg9sjiZAoUtsdnboemJhqfr6lDe8fi_0v/s1600/TGChartImage-2.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeH_gyVcMnCSoyfQFUYYO47Bwa6abvRghoG-J_ZA1FO3rdBtBeELJ-ZFb8uLiA_tomiqqfeC5UxbvCKWk0fiY7GkVGjOQIdjNVrJOnsnJGDTtfg9sjiZAoUtsdnboemJhqfr6lDe8fi_0v/s640/TGChartImage-2.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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This stability has been nice for everyone after a long time in very unstable markets. So, where do things go from here. Well, certainly over the next 3-4 months, I would expect that activity levels would continue to trend lower, active list prices to trend slightly higher to stable and sales price to do the same. The real question will come post-election to see how the overall economy withstands a presidential election in which nobody appears to happy with their choices. Having said that, I will say that over the last 12 months, inventory levels based on the number of Closed Sales has run from as low as 1.8 months to as high as only 2.8 months. These levels are still incredibly low and would normally predict higher values in the near future. <br />
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If you would like an evaluation of your specific neighborhood or a valuation on your particular home, please call me ASAP for a confidential evaluation of your property and your real estate goals. #johnsoldmyhome. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-27712415585411235352015-06-17T12:49:00.001-07:002015-06-17T12:49:31.341-07:00Great news for Ventura County Real Estate!Now that we are almost halfway through June, I thought I would take a look to see where things stand with real estate values and overall real estate activity since the beginning of the year and compare things to last year. If you own residential real estate in Ventura County the news is good. <br />
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<b>VENTURA COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES</b></div>
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<b>JANUARY TO MAY 2014 VS 2015</b></div>
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Some of the highlights...<br />
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<li>The total number of sales are up almost 17.5%!</li>
<li>The total volume of sales is up by almost 26%!</li>
<li>The average sales price is up by 7%! </li>
<li>Averages 2014 - $638,634 to 2015 - $682,831!</li>
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Some of the details...<br />
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<li>The rich get richer...homes valued at $1,000,000 or more was the leader in the activity increases with activity up by 35% and overall volume of sales up by 38%. (See the first chart below.)</li>
<li>Homes from $400,000 to $1,000,000 also had nice increases as well with sales up by 33% and overall volume up by 23%. </li>
<li>The only declines in volume came in homes valued less than $400,000. Overall sales activity was down by 20% and overall volume declined by 18%. </li>
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The reason the sales activity in the under $400,000 category has dropped is simply due to the fact that their are fewer and fewer of the homes on the market. You can see below that as of today there are only 50 homes on the Active market in ALL OF VENTURA COUNTY!</div>
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The real challenge will be sustaining this activity in the second half of 2015 as it appears interest rates will be on the rise. If you have been thinking that it might be the right time to sell your home now that values are up, don't hesitate to call me on my cell at 818-391-4131. I will look forward to hearing from you and to helping you or your friends and family with all of their real estate needs! </div>
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Have a great day!</div>
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0Santa Rosa Valley, Camarillo, CA 93012, USA34.2347962 -118.93438347.909333199999999 -160.2429774 60.5602592 -77.6257894tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-38616835698867355752015-03-25T16:07:00.001-07:002015-03-25T16:07:13.823-07:00Jobs, jobs, jobs! Real Estate values on the rise thanks to job growth!I have been saying for some time now that the real estate markets (and the overall economy) need more jobs in order to sustain and drive values. Over this slow recovery, we kept hearing that, while it felt like things were getting better, we were really being deceived by government intervention with things like stimulus packages, the buying of mortgages and keeping interest rates low. As these government interventions begin to fade, it appears that the job market might actually be getting better. For a long time, people wondered if the job creation was strong enough to drive down not only U3, the most commonly used Unemployment Rate but also U6 which also included people that were under-employed. <br />
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As it turns out, both of these numbers have come down quite a bit. U3 is down to 5.5% from its peak in October of 2009 at 10%. U6 stands at 11.0% which is down from its peak in December of 2009 at 17.1%. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWtoA814VqeGKk7-WMbuhdTozAiUxZI99cjq68u6kRz-AXrtM8qDHw08db1CYrH7RfGI3Jr0bYFl7BEoi_CygaJUEYF9ui8MCUagU3tnfqvPHKRtPOD4tgce0iy4pBEa7oYqhyphenhyphenLioOlm5R/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-03-25+at+3.08.32+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWtoA814VqeGKk7-WMbuhdTozAiUxZI99cjq68u6kRz-AXrtM8qDHw08db1CYrH7RfGI3Jr0bYFl7BEoi_CygaJUEYF9ui8MCUagU3tnfqvPHKRtPOD4tgce0iy4pBEa7oYqhyphenhyphenLioOlm5R/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-03-25+at+3.08.32+PM.png" height="263" width="400" /></a>The overall economy is always important because California is usually on the bleeding edge of these changes both positively and negatively, but as they say...all real estate is local! So, if the overall economy is getting better, that's good news but it doesn't mean you are being affected in the same way. Well, the picture in Ventura County is similar. As you can see from the graph, the unemployment rate in Ventura County as of February 2015 was 5.7% which is down from its peak in August of 2010 at 11.2%.<br />
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Why am I thinking about this today? I read a report this morning on the Top Employers in each state and I was slightly surprised when I realized that the nation's largest employer is, in fact, the largest employer in 20 out of our 50 States...Wal-Mart! That's right! 20 States in the Union are the proud owners of Wal-Mart as their #1 employer. <br />
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Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. <br />
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Fortunately, 16 states had a University or a University Hospital as their #1 employer and an additional 8 had a network of Health Systems/Hospitals as their #1 employer. <br />
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In California, the article said that the UCLA Hospital Network was the #1 employer. Locally, Ventura County is proud to say that its largest employer is our own military with over 15,000 active duty, Department of Defense employees and contractors working out of the bases in Port Hueneme and Point Mugu. Other large employers in the County are County of Ventura, Amgen, Ventura County Health Care Agency, Community Memorial Hospital, St Johns Regional Medical Center, The Oaks Shopping Mall, Los Robles Hospital, Baxter BioScience, California Lutheran University and several of the School Districts. <br />
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So, as jobs go, so do Home Values...right? Certainly makes logical sense, but is it really true? Clients selling real estate today in places like Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Westlake Village, Newbury Park, Moorpark, Simi Valley are all benefiting from a declining unemployment rate and, generally, rising home prices. Below, you will see a very impressive graph created by the people at Calculated Risk. It outlines the unemployment rates over time compared to Home Values over that same time period. It's not as clear as I would like it to be, but looking carefully, it does show that as the unemployment rate rises, values certainly begin to decline. In addition, as the unemployment rates begins to drop, sometimes right away and sometimes a few years later, home values begin to rise again. This graph is only through January of 2011, but you would certainly see similar results if the graph continued to show the declining unemployment rate and rising home values. <br />
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So, jobs, jobs and more jobs! Keep rooting on our economy and our employers so that we can all make more money so that we can buy more stuff at Wal-Mart!!!<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">If you or someone you know is thinking about selling or buying a home in the near future, please call me for a confidential appointment and evaluation of your own real estate goals. John Wise, jwise@2ciDirect.com, 818-391-4131. </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com02704 Redondo Circle, Santa Rosa Valley, CA 93012, USA34.243466 -118.9027409999999934.1909615 -118.98342199999999 34.295970499999996 -118.82206tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-38135601266504951642015-02-10T08:36:00.001-08:002015-02-10T08:36:31.390-08:00Is ZERO the new normal?Since December of 2008, the Fed has left the Federal Funds Rate at 0%-0.25%. The Federal Funds Rate is, basically, the rate at which other banks can borrow money from the Federal Reserve. The basic concept is that if it costs banks less to borrow money from the Fed, it should allow them to lend more money, at more affordable rates, to the consumer. <br />
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So, this rate was dropped in December of 2008 in an attempt to stem the tide of the Great Recession. It worked to some degree, but the real question now is when will it ever rise again? Or, will it ever rise again? <br />
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Rick Reider, a Managing Director for BlackRock, wrote the article <a href="http://www.blackrockblog.com/2015/02/09/jobs-report-gamechanger-fed/?utm_source=BlackRock+Blog&utm_campaign=99a47a241d-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_7beec13d69-99a47a241d-305412637">"Jobs Report Could Be a Game-Changer for the Fed"</a> and he reiterated what everyone has been talking about every time the economy looks like it has its legs again. That is...the Fed has to raise rates now! Right? But then he goes on to say that with overall inflation in check and some still very core problems with the economy and who it is NOT helping (mainly the low-income wage earner...and much of the middle-class) then maybe they just keep it at ZERO. Isn't 6 years enough to call it the New Normal? What will happen once the Fed says, yes, let's raise the rate? The economy will have to be running more than its current walk, and for a more sustained time so that consumers can bear the burden of higher borrowing costs. <br />
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Bottom line...it may be the New Normal, but it is bound to change and when it does...it will cost more to buy a home. Don't wait! Call me today for a confidential review of your real estate goals. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-73984379463230049322015-02-06T15:34:00.000-08:002015-02-06T15:34:03.754-08:00Update on the Housing Market in Ventura County and CamarilloIn these first few days of February, the markets are feeling better than in times past. Value are up which is good for most existing homeowners and interest rates have continued to remain at historical lows making it a good time for most trying to enter the market or expand their existing real estate portfolio. While the stock market has recently had some correction, the market has already stabilized after a few days of correction. This is important because if your wealth isn't in real estate, its in stocks and bonds through your IRA's and 401k's and 529's, etc. When that portfolio is doing well, you will almost always feel better about taking more risk in real estate. <br />
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And that risk has paid off recently! Values for single-family homes in Ventura County are up by 8.8% from the same time a year ago and some cities are experiencing even greater growth. <br />
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Values for single-family homes in Camarillo, for example, are up by 10.5%. However, activity levels are down. <br />
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In January, the number of single-family homes sold in Ventura County is down by 1.5% from the same time last year, but it is the lowest number of homes sold in at least the last 5 years. In Camarillo, the numbers are worse with the number of sales down 8.5% from a year ago and looking back over a 12 month period, they are down by 15.4%. <br />
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So, buyer activity is good, but needs improvement. Many are still not fully committed to buying. Many of the first-time homebuyers (many of which are Millennials) are not pulling the trigger on a home purchase like they have in the past. Some are just to freaked out by the last wave of foreclosures, many are just now starting to find jobs and feel good about their prospects of keeping their jobs and many just have no plans to buy because they feel it ties them down in terms of job prospects. In addition, even though lower interest rates have helped the real estate markets, it has also had an affect that I am not sure has fully shown itself yet. That is, those that own property now, if they refinanced their home at the bottom and are holding a mortgage with an interest rate below 3% or in the low 3% range, they are going to have to really need to move up in order to walk away from it. As a result, I believe we will see the average time a property is held get extended beyond what we have come to be familiar with. I can't tell you how many calls I get of current homeowners who want to buy a bigger house, but keep the smaller house and rent it. That is causing fewer entry level homes to be available and when their are fewer homes available, values have a tendency to rise. So, entry level demand is low and the supply of entry level housing, both resale and new developments, is lower than we would expect. <br />
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But, that has not stopped Sellers from trying to sell into this market. In Camarillo, the number of single-family homes for sale is up by over 20% from the same time a year ago and over the last 12 months is up by over 42%. The numbers for Ventura County are almost exactly the same. So, when your number of sales is declining and the number of homes for sale is rising, the results, generally are a rising inventory of available homes. <br />
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In January, inventory levels of homes for sale in Ventura County was up by 21.8% from a year ago and inventory levels in Camarillo were up by 42.7%. These increased inventory levels are why most economists are predicting values to rise slowly during 2015, but if they continue to rise to higher levels and we don't see more Buyer demand, values, I'm afraid will have to come down. <br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXQcNCl1NQlvlD0ySwuH4CAQAfD_KMhMNz5Y4Rbj8I7RpkDxH4LYomyrmJTVXtzhzXcM3TfRpBwiiYONs8iCy08wgyWmDCNgPmdxmK0_xi6na-0FM9dLWudYTpRCYwxVLiyqHt_JBM3aVT/s1600/Cornerstone+Head+Shot+2b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXQcNCl1NQlvlD0ySwuH4CAQAfD_KMhMNz5Y4Rbj8I7RpkDxH4LYomyrmJTVXtzhzXcM3TfRpBwiiYONs8iCy08wgyWmDCNgPmdxmK0_xi6na-0FM9dLWudYTpRCYwxVLiyqHt_JBM3aVT/s1600/Cornerstone+Head+Shot+2b.jpg" height="200" width="133" /></a><br />
One additional positive sign is that we continue to see "Bounce-back-Buyers" coming back to the market. These are people that experienced foreclosures or short sales during this last cycle. They have re-established their credit, begun to save and are now taking advantage of the reduced timelines for those who experienced this housing distress over the last 6 or 7 years. <br />
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It is still a unique time in that it is a great time to buy with interest rates still very low and bound to go up AND it is a good time to sell as values have now almost recovered from their peaks prior to the crash. If you know anyone who might be interested in taking advantage of this market, please have them call me right away for a confidential real estate evaluation. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0Santa Rosa Valley, Camarillo, CA 93012, USA34.2347962 -118.93438348.7127616999999979 -160.2429774 59.756830699999995 -77.6257894tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-66316036407040005112014-12-19T07:02:00.000-08:002014-12-19T07:02:26.662-08:00Good news for Real Estate..."appropriate policy accommodation"!!!The stock markets finished the day up 421.28 points yesterday preceded by a good day before that. It was the largest 2 day gain we have seen in over 3 years. So what's everyone so happy about? The Federal Reserve issued their monthly Federal Open Market Committee meeting Press Release where they basically gave all good news. <br />
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1. Economic activity is expanding.<br />
2. Labor market conditions continue their improvements.<br />
3. Solid job gains.<br />
4. Lower unemployment rate.<br />
5. Household spending is rising moderately.<br />
6. Businesses are expanding their fixed investments (i.e. their spending money).<br />
7. Recovery in housing continues.<br />
8. Measures of long-term inflation remain stable.<br />
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Sounds good to me. There was basically no bad news in the Press Release. But, in addition to that, there were 2 key phrases that the stock market cheered. The first was "The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace...". What this means is that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates low. The stock markets keep thinking that if the economy continues to improve, the supports that the Fed has put in place to carry the economy through the latest recession...mostly keeping interest rates low and buying lots of mortgage-backed securities...will begin to end. Every time the Fed says things will continue, Wall Street looks at it as free money. <br />
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The second phrase in the Press Release from December 17th was "...the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy." This means, first, that the current policy isn't normal. For interest rates to be this low and for the Fed to be investing so much money in buying MBS', is unusual. It was a response to an economy in recession. Most are defining now that the Recession began in December of 2007 and ended in June or July of 2009. But, you see, that's really the point. That is really why Wall Street continues to cheer inaction by the Fed. The Recession ended 5.5 years ago and the Fed continues to prop up the economy. There are all sorts of questions as to whether or not the gains in the economy are real are just based on the Fed's loose policy. But that's not what I'm here to answer for today. <br />
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The news from the Fed is great for real estate because it means that those First Time Homebuyers who have been sitting on the fence, either because of the lack of confidence in their own job status or because of their doubts about the real estate markets, it gives them more time with lower interest rates to get in the game. This is what will really bring some stability back to the markets. While we have worked through most of the distressed sales (foreclosure activity continues to decline back to normal levels and Short Sale activity continues to decline) the last piece to add to get us back to stable growth is adding this First Time Homebuyer. The Millennials are the ones who don't seem to be participating yet and that is understandable. Millennials were the largest buyers of homes during the most recent housing boom/bust cycle and it would tend to be reasonable to say that they then were the most heavily burned. But even if they did not participate or get burned by the recent market crash, they sure saw the pain first hand. Lack of jobs, moving back in with Mom and Dad, rental rates skyrocketing and heavy Student loan obligations and a continued tight lending market are all reasons for this group to not prioritize housing. <br />
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But the Fed's stance on keeping rates low keeps the window open for this group to jump back into a market that has always served our nation and our local communities well. In Ventura County, in cities like Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park and even Westlake Village and Santa Rosa Valley, home-ownership is one of the things that creates stability and community. It is the American Dream. Even though it costs more today than every before, I still believe in the benefits of the American Dream and, apparently, so do the people who serve of the Federal Reserve. We thank you for your patience. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-44575615105653064992014-11-06T12:37:00.001-08:002014-11-06T12:37:10.452-08:00Ventura County Inventory Levels Continue to RiseInventory levels of Single-Family homes in Ventura County continues to rise. The number of single-family homes available to purchase in Ventura County is up 37% from the same time a year ago based on the last 12 months of closings. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKik1AX7q5leQ9Vlk39JmKQLKqpeTyN4yrSONoRfpXMmckc4L0KmtsBJlrXaqQozGnXLT9M0e5R5gVy9VwDW-T79eHuO4y-T9aP7F2zj8t6OxlKi9kHN2zLMR_Et5HAC25xxQrJtSJtQNg/s1600/Inventory.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKik1AX7q5leQ9Vlk39JmKQLKqpeTyN4yrSONoRfpXMmckc4L0KmtsBJlrXaqQozGnXLT9M0e5R5gVy9VwDW-T79eHuO4y-T9aP7F2zj8t6OxlKi9kHN2zLMR_Et5HAC25xxQrJtSJtQNg/s1600/Inventory.png" height="251" width="400" /></a></div>
The number of homes for sale is up by 26% from the same time a year ago and the number of closings is actually down by 18%. So, this gap has created a growing number of homes on the market. We have seen increases in all areas of the housing market with the exception of the market over $1,000,000. The inventory of homes available in this market is flat on a month-to-month basis as well as looking back 12 months. Certainly you know the phrase that "all real estate is local" but that is certainly true here. While these numbers reflect the general trends, your tract, your neighborhood, your city might look different than this. So, if you are located in Santa Rosa Valley or Camarillo or Thousand Oaks or if you are located in The Pinnacle or Village at the Park or Lynnmere or Rancho Santa Rosa, these numbers and this assessment may not apply to you. Call me if you are interested in a more local review of the situation for your particular piece of real estate. <div>
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The biggest drop that we have seen in terms of overall activity is one of the things that I have been concerned about (and that we continue to hear about in the news) and that is the entry-level buyer. We keep hearing that first-time homebuyers are not participating in this market and the data would seem to support that claim. Because these buyers are missing from this market, the result has been a decline in the demand for housing in our middle market, where most of activity happens. Just look at the chart below and see the drop we in had in the activity level in sales from $400,000 and below. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsUplJpctF6iRRUZdd3rKbEY1dR0NWRyxdIHbR9fAYjZ5qLKd2JAXWOHkdh57Ok4C4aTYb4hTqd5_Zh148qTYlVtY13Ws75tHkSz8SV8OKSRQFb3v8dr5LHg4rCThKI_K37JmYxECi28Pr/s1600/400k+and+under.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsUplJpctF6iRRUZdd3rKbEY1dR0NWRyxdIHbR9fAYjZ5qLKd2JAXWOHkdh57Ok4C4aTYb4hTqd5_Zh148qTYlVtY13Ws75tHkSz8SV8OKSRQFb3v8dr5LHg4rCThKI_K37JmYxECi28Pr/s1600/400k+and+under.png" height="250" width="400" /></a></div>
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This market over the last two years has made up over 32% of the total sales in all of Ventura County, yet in October, it only accounted for just under 18% of our total number of sales. We need to see this market return, otherwise it stagnates the move-up activity and really begins to shut down the real estate markets. In order for this to happen, we will have to see a drop in the First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Index (FTHB HAI). The FTHB HAI is made up of three basic ingredients: Median Home Price, Median Income and Average Mortgage Rates. All three of these have dropped dramatically during the period of time when the real estate/mortgage markets crashed around 2006. The good news is that values and mortgage rates all came down but the problem is that so did the Median Incomes in California. Below, you can see how all three factors were affected during this period of time. </div>
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Median Price</div>
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Average Mortgage Rates</div>
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Median Income</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgch9rVLN3Gy0wTBjGZoZEMwfR85-OL3cU64JEe6r0J-OdUamZMPlfgn9_bKlT-Wpj5IZVKMER6TOCnrr8Zaj-orLbJO3LfsdAMdx4e0ltvGvaSsUzFYRPXqH95k4cdXcWwwcLjq8A2eAjV/s1600/CA+Median+Income.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgch9rVLN3Gy0wTBjGZoZEMwfR85-OL3cU64JEe6r0J-OdUamZMPlfgn9_bKlT-Wpj5IZVKMER6TOCnrr8Zaj-orLbJO3LfsdAMdx4e0ltvGvaSsUzFYRPXqH95k4cdXcWwwcLjq8A2eAjV/s1600/CA+Median+Income.png" height="263" width="400" /></a></div>
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While we have seen the California Median Income recently come up off of its lows, we did not hit the bottom until the 1st Quarter of 2012. In order for things to improve for First-Time Homebuyers in areas like Camarillo and Thousand Oaks and Moorpark and Simi Valley and Oxnard and Ventura, we have to see the Median Incomes rise faster than either Mortgage Rates and/or Median Prices. This means jobs, jobs, jobs! We need better jobs and we need more jobs. We need our college graduates to get to work. Once this starts to improve, I am confident the market will continue to look a lot more normal. </div>
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Have a great day and don't forget to let me know if there is anything I can do to help you, your family or friends with any of their real estate needs. </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-61086278487080645432014-10-29T16:47:00.002-07:002014-10-29T16:48:58.138-07:00Safety in Real Estate...in spite of our fear!<span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">"Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world." - Franklin D. Roosevelt</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg63CcAuRa2wDexwP52b6_8fYGS5Ictur82-BIuqI5VUmFF18My6gwNysGR1h6IuAb21KbBabQzSxy6Gsqx_bAaXVCMavCCqZZB7veqQXxgQeKZYJgReiH3YBs6TFiHiMatZzNiMpRTFF4y/s1600/FDR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg63CcAuRa2wDexwP52b6_8fYGS5Ictur82-BIuqI5VUmFF18My6gwNysGR1h6IuAb21KbBabQzSxy6Gsqx_bAaXVCMavCCqZZB7veqQXxgQeKZYJgReiH3YBs6TFiHiMatZzNiMpRTFF4y/s1600/FDR.jpg" height="111" width="200" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">It seems like our world these days is so unstable. Maybe it's just me but it seems like everything is in flux. The stock market hits record high and then plunges. Interest rates are at their lowest levels in the history of the mortgage market yet every day we keep hearing they are bound to jump. What happens to the housing market when that happens? Real Estate markets in Ventura County and around the US have plummeted since 2006, hit bottom around 2012, jumped by 20-25% over </span></span></span><span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">the next 12 months or so and then have begun to show signs of weakening. ISIS and Al Queda continue to exert their presence on the World's stage causing a heightened sense of fear. And now we need to be concerned about our neighbor or co-worker or my child's friend coming down with Ebola. Peak election season always causes worry because politicians on both side convince us to vote for them or their party because of something we should be afraid of. Fear inspires us. It motivates us to take action...sometimes to act and sometimes to cower. Fear sells. Fear gets our attention because it makes us sit up and listen. Even in Real Estate it works. "Buy now before prices go higher." "Sell now before prices drop even further." "Be aggressive with your offer so that you compete with the multiple buyers." "Take this offer. It might be the only one you get." See how that works? Crazy. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">Yet, with all of this fear and instability happening around us, for most of us, we can always find peace and comfort AT HOME. This is the place where we usually find comfort and rest. It's the place we long for. I saw the quote above from FDR and thought it was so true. He was speaking about the economics of HOME and that is certainly true. But, to be honest, most of my clients aren't really thinking about the economics when they walk through the door for the first time. It's more emotional than that. They are asking themselves questions like..."Does it feel right?" Does it fit my family?" Can I see myself here long-term?" "How's the neighborhood?" "How are the schools?" "Does it have a pool?" "Does it have an attached garage with direct access?" "Is the backyard big enough for my kids?" "Is the backyard small enough that I don't have to spend all weekend caring for it?" Each one of us has our own needs when it comes to housing and that is what makes my job enjoyable. Each client has a new set of parameters that create the ideal home and it's my job to get as close to that ideal as possible. Sure, money plays a part. As FDR says, "purchased with common sense" is important. Today I suspect he would replace "paid for in full" with "paid for with financing you can afford". Money is a factor, but once you have hit that parameter, the rest is all emotion. </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidoDz9TtSB_Oo4T-yUH_I3-t8v1ap5H6P2eKEl11W5Bn4Zsewx67NKxyFvmxsP5aWcec-iDaY1D6jnXR4iVcIJSFCRsPTZLiUC368NibQ4ulTMtUQLgcD0wxua5RbfEGglUhNII5vOuM5h/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-10-29+at+4.45.46+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidoDz9TtSB_Oo4T-yUH_I3-t8v1ap5H6P2eKEl11W5Bn4Zsewx67NKxyFvmxsP5aWcec-iDaY1D6jnXR4iVcIJSFCRsPTZLiUC368NibQ4ulTMtUQLgcD0wxua5RbfEGglUhNII5vOuM5h/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-10-29+at+4.45.46+PM.png" height="235" width="320" /></a><span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">During the most difficult of times in real estate when values began to plummet in 2006, the thing I had to remind people who were losing their home is that HOME truly is where your heart is. I know it is trite, but it's true. Like any investment, you take risk and most of the time, if you are able to own a home long enough, it will also payoff financially, but when it doesn't you have to remember that HOME is where you are with your family and those who love you. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">I hope you find peace today in your HOME. If you are not at "Real Estate peace" and would like help finding it, please call me for an immediate, peaceful, confidential consultation. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;">Have a great day!</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 22px;"><br /></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-60305185638702895962014-10-17T08:00:00.001-07:002014-10-17T08:02:04.771-07:00Are US Real Estate Markets really rolling?Today there was an article by Jason Lange from Reuters that the "U.S. housing recovery rolls on as groundbreaking rises". Here is the link to the article <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSKCN0I619U20141017">http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSKCN0I619U20141017</a><br />
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The article goes on to explain that people are starting to build again. Normally, people look to this number to dictate whether or not the Housing Markets are strong. Personally, I think there are other indicators of the Housing Market strength than this number. Certainly, by itself, it is meaningless. You have to take into consideration all of the factors before looking at this one number and making a judgement that anything is "rolling" anywhere. Obviously, being a Realtor, I am always looking for good news to share about the real estate markets. We have been through so many years of pain that all signs of good news come with hope. However, given how hard the U.S. Housing market got it, you can't blame me for being a little skeptical about the good news especially when the market seems so fragile. Let me explain. <br />
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There are 3 things I am worried about. <br />
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1. Yes, values are on the rise. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRYUIfr6-2yek7QLxvA5xOp9_kaY4anyddHk6qmtml6RrbJ5ZKzsyhcUHLsy1DlgXqLNYx2IasHJYSyuEuJjxkoZnCr3POoaW9QbA2boWtlGJWjAN5JuNB6FQNh3cvwkcZ8ca3TcR5Ewfl/s1600/TGChartImage.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRYUIfr6-2yek7QLxvA5xOp9_kaY4anyddHk6qmtml6RrbJ5ZKzsyhcUHLsy1DlgXqLNYx2IasHJYSyuEuJjxkoZnCr3POoaW9QbA2boWtlGJWjAN5JuNB6FQNh3cvwkcZ8ca3TcR5Ewfl/s1600/TGChartImage.png" height="332" width="400" /></a></div>
But, if you look at the data closely, you will see that in Ventura County, the Median Price of single-family homes increased by 43% from December 2011 to July of 2013. Amazing!!! But why did that happen? Was it sustainable? Most of the growth during this time frame came from a massive influx of investor capital not only into Ventura County, but into any real estate market that Wall Street Capital thought could produce a return. Much of this capital was buy and hold strategy taking a lot of the normal inventory off the market permanently, or at least until the strategy turns to "buy-hold-SELL". What happens then? What happens when Wall Street decides that its time to sell these assets? Will there be enough non-Wall Street buyers to sustain prices? Most think that each investor will have their own thoughts and needs on when it is the right time to sell these assets so the impact won't be as great as the increases I have outlined above. Since July of 2013, values are only up 1.3%. This is actually below the rate of U.S. Inflation in August of 2014 of 1.7% as outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. <br />
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2. Interest rates can't sustain these levels. The article even mentions this when it says that the Housing Market "suffered a setback last year" (right about July of 2013) "when interest rates spiked". <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic_H_IOvLgzPx18WZCPZWQD34Ud2t6lKjVEfqfuiILDfw2RR3HdGbBbShkNOLoehyphenhyphenkCjxH1keEJzblR76Z26uk9fb3K_jP6M4XE1yjYVDHlPTDAodCoTNcOXz1tRfgkr31i_IxClrRmn2O/s1600/30+Yr+Fx+Rate.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic_H_IOvLgzPx18WZCPZWQD34Ud2t6lKjVEfqfuiILDfw2RR3HdGbBbShkNOLoehyphenhyphenkCjxH1keEJzblR76Z26uk9fb3K_jP6M4XE1yjYVDHlPTDAodCoTNcOXz1tRfgkr31i_IxClrRmn2O/s1600/30+Yr+Fx+Rate.png" height="227" width="320" /></a></div>
I don't even think we will need a "spike" for rising rates to have an impact on this market. When the average homeowner has a rate of 3.75% on their 30-year mortgage, will they make the same move-up purchase they would have if rates are now 5%? Will the First-Time-Homebuyer be able to even enter the market if rates are at 6%? I suspect not unless the U.S. economy or the DJIA is up significantly to offset the higher rate. We will have to see continued declines in the jobless rate and similar increases in the Labor Force Participation Rate and overall wage growth in order to sustain increasing interest rates. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTISDzC5ctmBAMDekxGTsm5PXBzRvHHLFpQB5JOIqW-THsM9Su89kkCgZWBvMhPTVsgGoIZVtTVbs9LqwqrUX3n48hAevCa9SzrTxZDzN9X_1eYpkWHDlV7JqLvAkWVaxMJQkkEpHls8jt/s1600/vc3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTISDzC5ctmBAMDekxGTsm5PXBzRvHHLFpQB5JOIqW-THsM9Su89kkCgZWBvMhPTVsgGoIZVtTVbs9LqwqrUX3n48hAevCa9SzrTxZDzN9X_1eYpkWHDlV7JqLvAkWVaxMJQkkEpHls8jt/s1600/vc3.png" height="266" width="320" /></a>3. My last concern is the increasing trends we are seeing in the level of available inventory. Inventory of single-family homes in Ventura County is up 58.9% from the same time a year ago. While these levels are historically in line with a healthy real estate market, the increasing trend is far from healthy. What will happen to these inventory levels when we begin to see the homes that are breaking ground now hit the market? With groundbreaking up 6.3%, per the article, I am concerned that the additional increases of homes available for sale will continue to put downward pressure on home values going forward. <br />
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On the surface, things are better. I am happy Wall Street money came in and injected the markets with some much needed capital, but let's not be deceived by the reality of the situation. These markets are much more fragile than it appears. If you are thinking about selling or buying in this market, give me a call so we can sort through your goals and how they fit into the existing markets and, remember, all real estate is local, so your specific market might look completely different than the general markets outlined above. Call me anytime for a confidential evaluation. Have a great day!<br />
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John WiseAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-73609400871751425302014-07-21T12:05:00.001-07:002014-07-21T12:05:31.098-07:00Ventura County Real Estate Update July 2014Values for Residential homes in Ventura County have remained stable during the last few months with values up only .2% from the same Quarter a year ago. But, there are 2 things that are more interesting about that market that is bound to bring changes in the coming months. First, the Average Price of Homes for Sale, while it is up 1.8% from a month ago, is actually down 23.6% from the same Quarter a year ago. In addition, inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply. This makes for a interesting combination. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiEKpbwVLVq1CyKYq16iuN8umVK8T0Hn5Fw4vGger_hBOI6Qgz9qH6vVF1dmbHIFmGo3s85hLw45BGXRM_jdc-fLU3tac1LSo96SyzWPgXX_yyr0BVfTP_J5KsWvApbB6B_hbcZ3g3b9j4/s1600/Ventura+County+Sale+Sold+Pending.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiEKpbwVLVq1CyKYq16iuN8umVK8T0Hn5Fw4vGger_hBOI6Qgz9qH6vVF1dmbHIFmGo3s85hLw45BGXRM_jdc-fLU3tac1LSo96SyzWPgXX_yyr0BVfTP_J5KsWvApbB6B_hbcZ3g3b9j4/s1600/Ventura+County+Sale+Sold+Pending.png" height="433" width="640" /></a></div>
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The chart above reflects the activity of Homes For Sale and Homes Sold during the last 14 months. You can easily see the sharp increase we have seen since December of 2013 in the number of Homes For Sale. This is relatively normal as December is typically the slowest month for new listings, but the rise in Homes For Sale has not corresponded with the number of Homes Sold...certainly not at the same pace. As a result of that, the inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply. Below is a chart the reflects the rise in inventory levels in Ventura County homes for sale during the same time period as above. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMscMRMZJuUgZl-tyVIY0T0lwVKfXyU4q3s7bAi1Nbzq0txLmYRqTdN1hJ8QRmge_zYuHo1s5ngrOtmKnbpEK7T8CUhQ-JNQJHLKQqfb9e9ueM2hRtmSKJ9Csf_lIv_fclZwuh4xDnuUYp/s1600/Ventura+County+Inventory.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMscMRMZJuUgZl-tyVIY0T0lwVKfXyU4q3s7bAi1Nbzq0txLmYRqTdN1hJ8QRmge_zYuHo1s5ngrOtmKnbpEK7T8CUhQ-JNQJHLKQqfb9e9ueM2hRtmSKJ9Csf_lIv_fclZwuh4xDnuUYp/s1600/Ventura+County+Inventory.png" height="428" width="640" /></a></div>
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While 2.7 months of inventory is actually a relatively normal number, it is up 78.8% from the same Quarter a year ago. Sharp changes like this is not healthy for any market and it is bound to have an impact one way or another. So, what is that impact going to be? Normally, as suggested above, sharp increases like this to inventory levels with demand staying the same, would normally lead to a decline in values. So, I would be surprised if over the next few months we don't see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold. But, the last chart that you see below reflects the Average Price of Homes in Ventura County that are For Sale and that have Sold. You will see that the changes in the Average Price of Homes For Sale has dropped significantly over time, yet the Average Price of Homes Sold has remained relatively stable. What does this mean? Well, you would normally expect to see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold when you have such a large decline in the Average Price of Homes For Sale. It appears that, in this market, what has changed has been the Seller's expectations. The homebuyer is still willing to pay a fair price for the home, but when prices began to rise a little over a year ago, Seller's thought that we were back in 2005/2006 where prices were just going to continue to increase. Well, as we all know, things are quite different than they were during that time period and there is no longer an endless supply of financing and price increases. <br />
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I would anticipate that prices in Ventura County will drop over the next few months and possibly into 2015 as we try to burn off this excess inventory. But, unless we see something dramatic happen in the market place, I would expect that values will continue to get back onto a more normal growth pattern which is something that all of us would like. Both buyers and sellers function better when the markets are more predictable. <br />
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If you are thinking about selling your home and you are looking for a listing agent in Ventura County, please don't hesitate to let me know. I would be happy to set up a confidential appointment to review your situation so I can determine if I can help you meet your real estate goals. <br />
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You can also find similar information at my website at <a href="http://2cidirect.com/ventura-county.asp">http://2cidirect.com/ventura-county.asp</a>. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-36338396050786599872014-06-23T14:40:00.002-07:002014-06-23T14:40:26.130-07:00Top 10 Reasons to move to the Los Angeles areaYa. There are a lot of things about LA that can force people to leave or find homes someplace else. Smog, Taxes, Cost of Living, Traffic. These are the hot buttons for most people. I have lived in and around the LA Area now for all but 6 years of my 47 years (2 in New York and the first 4 that I don't remember in Tucson and Phoenix). I do love LA, but someone asked me the other day "Why?" I didn't really have a good answer because it's not something I consciously ever really spent any time on, but I thought I would spend a few minutes and let you know why. <br />
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For some background, I grew up in a place called Northridge which is located in Los Angeles County and a suburb of the City of Los Angeles. I graduated from Pepperdine University where I spent 4 very challenging years having to balance school and Malibu, but I figured things out and decided to move to New York. Lived in New York for 2 years and then came home and spent a short time in Woodland Hills (also an LA suburb) and then moved to Simi Valley which is located in Ventura County (the northwest adjacent County to Los Angeles). After a few years there we moved to Thousand Oaks and then to Camarillo/Santa Rosa Valley that are all located in Ventura County. From my home in Santa Rosa Valley, I can be to the beaches in Malibu, Santa Barbara, Brentwood, LAX Magic Mountain all in about 45 minutes given traffic. But, here are some of the things I love most about living in LA. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAUeqDKhdlTw3eUsN8iogUAJsHTW5ikCOL3jzuMcZ17ovoOMqs1jb4GPHleUfe-nwzpJk7UHqkMskZ3JMu_i0OkZ4lnI3OjSkwLxrsJlyNGUplNKx5yt60OimGsujqNnsuxaKXs11aHake/s1600/LAX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAUeqDKhdlTw3eUsN8iogUAJsHTW5ikCOL3jzuMcZ17ovoOMqs1jb4GPHleUfe-nwzpJk7UHqkMskZ3JMu_i0OkZ4lnI3OjSkwLxrsJlyNGUplNKx5yt60OimGsujqNnsuxaKXs11aHake/s1600/LAX.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a></div>
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10. Travel. By plane - LAX, Burbank Airport are all within Los Angeles County, but it is only a short drive to other major airports in Long Beach, Orange County or Riverside. In addition, there are a multitude of smaller airports that can support your desire to fly in privately in Van Nuys and Camarillo and a whole lot more. But, LAX is a hub to American Airlines, Delta, United, Alaska Air and Horizon Air, but is also a focus for Southwest Airlines, Virgin Air and Allegiant Air. You can also fly from LAX Internationally to wherever it is you want to go. By boat - Cruises to Alaska, Canada's West Coast, Mexico and the Caribbean happen daily out of the ports in San Pedro or Long Beach. But you can also take shorter trips to Catalina Island or sail your own boats docking them in Marina del Rey or Port Hueneme or Ventura. By car - yes, we have lots of cars. But the roads are plenty and the destinations endless. <br />
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9. Hollywood. It's got to make anyone's Top 10 list because it is what most people think of when they think of LA, but, to be honest, it's sort of a hassle. Every once in awhile, I will head down there with my family for an event or two, but for the most part, if you have a family, you probably won't be spending much time there. If you are single and hip...there is no better place to be. <br />
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These could each be their own blog unto themselves, but I will hit the rest of the list another day, but just so you know what else is to come...<br />
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8. Entertainment<br />
7. Food<br />
6. Suburbs<br />
5. Melting Pot<br />
4. Beaches<br />
3. Sports and Sports Teams<br />
2. Opportunity<br />
1. WeatherAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-75182104096700679882013-12-31T15:16:00.000-08:002013-12-31T15:16:00.323-08:00New Hope for those who suffered Short Sale or Foreclosure! Happy New Year! <br />
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I just wanted to pass along my thanks to all of you for your support in 2013. It looks like I will close out the year in the Top 3% of all Realtors in Ventura County. When you combine that with the work I have also done in LA County, I am thrilled with the results. Next year my goal is to end up in the Top 1%. <br />
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The National Association of Realtors published a report recently Buyer and Sellers and there were some interesting statistics: <br />
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<ul>
<li>42% of buyers found their agent through a referral from a friend or family member.</li>
<li>39% of sellers used an agent referred by a friend or family member.</li>
<li>25% of sellers used the agent that represented them on the purchase.</li>
<li>67% only contacted 1 agent to sell their house.</li>
</ul>
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So, as you can see, you are vitally important to me and I am grateful for those of you who referred me a client last year or used my services again. I can’t do all I do without your support. Thank you!<br />
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Potential new crop of buyers? Know anyone with a Short Sale or Foreclosure that is back on their feet for a year or so? <br />
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Even though lending guidelines are still very tight these days, we are beginning to see signs that things might be changing. FHA has come out with a new loan program for buyers who have had a Foreclosure, Short Sale or Bankruptcy. The new program is called the "FHA Back to Work Program”. You can find details at the following link, but here are some of the highlights. <br />
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http://backtoworkprogram.org/#more_info<br />
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<ul>
<li>You have to qualify for the basic FHA Guidelines in terms of income and liabilities.</li>
<li>You have to re-establish credit after the problem occurred. This has to include a 12 month record of new, on-time rental housing payments with no delinquencies and no more than 1 30 day late on any other credit.</li>
<li>You have to document that your problem occurred because of a financial hardship where your income dropped by 20% or more for at least 6 months.</li>
<li>You have to complete HUD-approved housing counseling. (The link above is for a qualified counselor, but there are many others).</li>
</ul>
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If you know anyone who might fit this description, please pass on this information and I can get them connected with someone that can give them more detail. <br />
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I hope all of you have a Happy and Safe New Year and a blessed 2014! Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-55190362573967265632013-12-23T14:33:00.000-08:002013-12-23T14:33:02.004-08:00What do the Real Estate markets look like for 2014?At this time of year, everyone has their projections for the coming year. It is always a good chance to look back at what happened and try to figure out what things might look like for the coming future. How often those projections are correct is another story. Who really knows. But, I do think the information can be useful for Sellers and Buyers if you are thinking about plans for your real estate in 2014. Recently, I sent out a link to the projections from the California Association of Realtors. You can check out the tweet at <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>2014 Market Forecast - As usual…some good news and some bad news. Check it out @ <a href="http://t.co/vXtcbQ9BnH">http://t.co/vXtcbQ9BnH</a></p>— John Wise (@1wisedad) <a href="https://twitter.com/1wisedad/statuses/415235859890192384">December 23, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> .<br />
For current homeowners, the good news that is coming out of the projections from CAR is that we will continue to see gains in the Median home price. The are projecting an increase 5.9% from $408,600 to $432,800. But, the bad news is that they are projecting a drop in the overall number of sales by 2.6%. This means that we will continue to see fewer sellers and inventory at lower levels. To be honest, I am a little surprised their projections are so rosy on the increases in Median Value. The primary driver of this will be the lower inventory levels because the rest of their projections, quite honestly and a little gloomy. In California, they are projected Job Growth of only 1.9%. This is LOWER than Job Growth projected for the end of 2013 at 2.2%. That's awful news. And, I'm not sure how, but they are also projecting a drop in the Unemployment Rate from 9% to 8.3%. With a projection of a drop in the Job Growth numbers, their Unemployment Rate drop seems aggressive. The other scary factor for Buyers is the projection of 30 year mortgage rates jumping from 4.1% to 5.3%. When you combine the increase in mortgage rates with a projected jump in Median Value, our affordability factor is going to get to a place that will be less healthy than it already is. This will eliminate many buyers from the pool and will result in a decline on the demand side. Again, based on these projections, I am surprised they are projecting any gains on Median Value. <br />
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The part that is the most important for the real estate markets to sustain the gains we have seen in 2013, we need to have better Job Growth numbers. The gains that we have seen in the stock market this year with the Dow (as of last Friday) being up by almost 25%, this means that both the consumer and the public companies are and will be feeling much better about finally starting to spend some of the cash and value they have been accumulating over the last few years as they have been hoarding cash. The declines we have seen in interest rates have helped millions of homeowners get into a more comfortable position from a disposable income standpoint, but the reductions in rates are also another reason why the number of sales has been so low. If you are sitting on a house with a 3.5% 15 or 30 year mortgage rate, to move to a bigger house, to a house that is worth more with a house that will have a higher mortgage rate, you will have to be making significantly more money or have a much larger down payment. And, if you are thinking about downsizing, that higher values combined with higher rates might stop you from making that change. In order to see continued gains on the housing front, we will have to continue to see a healthy stock market and a healthier job market in order to offset the increases they are projecting in mortgage rates. It just might take a year for everyone to adjust to the new levels of rates before the market finds its new pattern of stable growth again. <br />
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If you own real estate today, I think the chances are pretty good, given our still low levels of inventory, that you will see increases in your house value. I also think that given the low levels of inventory that it will also remain a good time to sell real estate. When inventory levels are low and demand is healthy, it puts Sellers in more control. <br />
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If you don't own real estate today and you need to or want to buy a home, my advice to you would be to act sooner rather than later. Hire a Realtor…like me…who is going to work hard on your behalf to find a home that fits your needs. <br />
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Call me today if you are thinking about selling or buying this coming year so we can sit down and review a strategy for all your real estate needs. <br />
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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! <br />
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John Wise<br />
818-391-4131<br />
jwise@2cidirect.com<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-46439093570404788532013-11-25T15:45:00.000-08:002013-11-25T15:45:12.681-08:00Real Estate Inventory Levels Up - Volume DownFor those of you who thought we might be experiencing another Real Estate Bubble like what we saw 7-8 years ago, at the moment, you thought wrong. Values in Camarillo peaked in August with an average at $592,000. Since that time values have come back down to around $520,000 for homes sold during October. We did see inventory levels jump to about twice the levels we saw just 6 months ago, but that has not translated to more volume. See the Inventory Chart below from Trendgraphix. It shows inventory levels of Residential Real Estate from August 2012 to October 2013. <br />
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We thought that people who had been waiting to sell would see the increases and get their house on the market to take advantage of the higher prices. That has happened. As you can see from the chart below, another datasource, Clarus MarketMetrics, shows the Median For Sale Price vs. the Median Sold price in Camarillo. And you can see that the gap between what properties are selling for and what properties are listed for is growing. This is bad for existing sellers. It means that many people thought they could overprice their property and let the market keep coming up to them. We haven't seen that prove out in the last 3 months. There either aren't enough buyers or the buyers simply won't pay the higher prices. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-BvOSbgtLDv9cDfmDEjlrZxKiW4j6E-QOLoTzrvWECAbrBgKRBFxlySPDGL6tYFojYqqvsS6RW3Q8c-s83BknfEVg5chopvoFXoG5FBMhEZX_MCWGKhpEyhDcXvkl7k4jSAe2hGkkCvqV/s1600/CMM_Report_PricingEquilibrium_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-BvOSbgtLDv9cDfmDEjlrZxKiW4j6E-QOLoTzrvWECAbrBgKRBFxlySPDGL6tYFojYqqvsS6RW3Q8c-s83BknfEVg5chopvoFXoG5FBMhEZX_MCWGKhpEyhDcXvkl7k4jSAe2hGkkCvqV/s400/CMM_Report_PricingEquilibrium_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Also, we have seen a dramatic rise in the Expired Listings since the beginning of the year. In January, almost no listings were expiring because everything was getting sold. Now, the level has more than doubled as you can see from the chart below. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQsCWuh-khoTEnAvRbY75w1pvOP9Vve89ZWh6Ac0KpKF4m0H5CIDvj_jtnsSZhBJZX375_L59uxGl0kbWcrScIs0SKl1oHhhaeXvAFkdU1L8Avlgw45PFllOJrgjhyphenhyphenx9K14-ayXGmQZ7dJ/s1600/CMM_Report_UnitsExpired_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQsCWuh-khoTEnAvRbY75w1pvOP9Vve89ZWh6Ac0KpKF4m0H5CIDvj_jtnsSZhBJZX375_L59uxGl0kbWcrScIs0SKl1oHhhaeXvAFkdU1L8Avlgw45PFllOJrgjhyphenhyphenx9K14-ayXGmQZ7dJ/s400/CMM_Report_UnitsExpired_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
I expect the next few months to be fairly slow, but then to pick up again in January. If you are thinking about buying a home, these are all good signs for you as we begin to see values softening. More inventory means more choices which, generally speaking, means more affordable real estate. If you have been thinking about selling, this is not great news, but keep in mind that values are still up from last year by 14% in this particular area. In some areas, values are up even higher. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF2AIpHHDo8cK16AdrU8SWhlx0I20mKEAsa3VYNOZdy01cQ5e2tA1A19LfYZMcw5gBUKNrCdo4rss7FrFiyjOp-ec3bHX8xsF3owKv5Ag4-zlmIKdY41UrhcKeTZ5sC7kaRq4vv4coMkv4/s1600/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF2AIpHHDo8cK16AdrU8SWhlx0I20mKEAsa3VYNOZdy01cQ5e2tA1A19LfYZMcw5gBUKNrCdo4rss7FrFiyjOp-ec3bHX8xsF3owKv5Ag4-zlmIKdY41UrhcKeTZ5sC7kaRq4vv4coMkv4/s400/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
As you probably know…all real estate is local. The information I have shared here is based on the Camarillo Real Estate market. If you would like a more detailed analysis of your particular home, just let me know. I would be happy to provide you with that information. <br />
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Happy Thanksgiving!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-85810192708666131662013-10-14T15:57:00.000-07:002013-10-14T15:57:11.866-07:00Ventura County Real Estate Update Fall 2013Values in Ventura County Real Estate are flat to down over the last 3 months. Good news is values are still up by over 21% from a year ago today based on the current MLS figures. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLgll955Y2jrmqIUhaBH9u7Jpg6i_dawSKVcs5-mVEmo-5k2pDCz9tfWIPl6VOa1L95gZjvpl7NoxGrWXEZeWGpCzEOrAsj29T2uoRhjiqRcGXf10uXuP6mQR_Vts2moDrk87yG2To8fLy/s1600/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLgll955Y2jrmqIUhaBH9u7Jpg6i_dawSKVcs5-mVEmo-5k2pDCz9tfWIPl6VOa1L95gZjvpl7NoxGrWXEZeWGpCzEOrAsj29T2uoRhjiqRcGXf10uXuP6mQR_Vts2moDrk87yG2To8fLy/s320/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
As you can see from above, the chart shows that Ventura County has had some nice increases but there is question over the last few months as to whether that was just a short-term bubble or a sustainable increase. Most would predict that the increases were short-term and that the direction from here on out is the same story everyone has been talking about for years...JOBS! But, before I get there, the other thing that is also beginning to happen is that we are seeing Sellers more optimistic than they have been before. Below you will see a second chart that shows the same information as above (Median Sales Price) but it is compared against Median For Sale. As you will see, at the end of this chart as you move to September, there is a gap that is widening. This shows you that Seller optimism that their house will sell at a higher price is strong. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMI-MQWbwX1uhlYRIfcz6a_1oZgnLsp-C5boyeogZswvupvbXfJx441BIVapVOtfYy-KKL0LDzzjzT10SAAgfgvSeO_sVIDkVGXUzJsCXKspGcHB_1ktFbTUeOUvjZHjCk1AyMhZHrV_eF/s1600/CMM_Report_PricingEquilibrium_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMI-MQWbwX1uhlYRIfcz6a_1oZgnLsp-C5boyeogZswvupvbXfJx441BIVapVOtfYy-KKL0LDzzjzT10SAAgfgvSeO_sVIDkVGXUzJsCXKspGcHB_1ktFbTUeOUvjZHjCk1AyMhZHrV_eF/s320/CMM_Report_PricingEquilibrium_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
So that's good news. A healthy real estate market has Seller's optimistic in addition to Buyer's being optimistic. The problem we are having is that that optimism has still not translated into more inventory. The chart below shows Homes For Sale and, as you can see, it has had a similar drop off in the last few months just as values have dropped. Then, directly below that is a chart that shows inventory levels of Active Single-Family Homes for sale in Ventura County as of 10/14/2013. You can see that the numbers here should continue to push values higher. A normal inventory of Active homes should be closer to 3 to 4 months. We are below 1.5 months of Active inventory. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdALJMEB4i2sfL2dd-86wmWEp38LMwrMT-CVsY0ebjlgzmxjUudoY3j8pp40I8Zbb8svhg3FVklgfIlF47KC5__PRIskll5YBQxtmJIy9A3ry7UbLwVuqNciqSDUqSyBtTLNdslH-8iyd_/s1600/CMM_Report_UnitsNew_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdALJMEB4i2sfL2dd-86wmWEp38LMwrMT-CVsY0ebjlgzmxjUudoY3j8pp40I8Zbb8svhg3FVklgfIlF47KC5__PRIskll5YBQxtmJIy9A3ry7UbLwVuqNciqSDUqSyBtTLNdslH-8iyd_/s320/CMM_Report_UnitsNew_chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixvGD0YRL2WbO2I3gAq_8JwDKOCT6Fs9cG4-HRGdXP7LhcVI6vScsuwrZWhrhAkOqhpMaJt1xCJvwCk2A44yXSUnbKJ3cfq4cRsgRAOJVLnfP3qAOFAusNAoRj0E3bakPRVhRU3tn8x2nn/s1600/InventoryJPG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixvGD0YRL2WbO2I3gAq_8JwDKOCT6Fs9cG4-HRGdXP7LhcVI6vScsuwrZWhrhAkOqhpMaJt1xCJvwCk2A44yXSUnbKJ3cfq4cRsgRAOJVLnfP3qAOFAusNAoRj0E3bakPRVhRU3tn8x2nn/s320/InventoryJPG.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Last week I had an opportunity to hear the Chief Economist from the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young, speak on her projections for California Real Estate in 2014. It was mostly good news. They are projecting that the increases in value that we have seen during the last 12 months will cause a more normalized market to evolve from where we are today. The are projecting that more homes will be sold (3% increase) and values will continue to improve (just over 6%). But she was hedging these bets because we still have so many outside influences. Obviously, if the Federal Budget crisis is not resolved in the next few weeks, it will certainly cause the growth pattern to cease. But, most think that this will get resolved. So, the biggest threat to the real estate markets in California is JOBS! She is still projecting a California unemployment rate of 8.3% at the end of 2014. That is still too high to have any real chance at larger real estate gains. She also believes that inventory levels will begin to rise as we see fewer and fewer investors coming into the market to buy and hold. Depending on how that all plays out, a lowering of demand and increasing inventories are good for buyers but usually not so good for Sellers. Needless to say, there are a lot of moving parts to what is happening these days and I continue to keep my nose to the grindstone helping my clients where they need help. <br />
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As I have said in the past and will continue to say..."Your advocacy is my greatest form of advertising!" So, please let ME know if YOU know anyone who is thinking about buying or selling in the near future. <br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-54110075051537733842013-09-04T09:46:00.000-07:002013-09-04T09:46:04.318-07:00Inventory Levels Finally Starting to RiseIt has been quite some time that inventory levels have been at the rock bottom. Over the last 60 days, we have seen more and more homeowners decide to take advantage of the increase in value and get their home on the market. As you will see below, Ventura County Inventory levels for Single Family Homes under $1,000,000 are up by 46%. That's right...46% from 6 months ago. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv6j4WWe5bSekTx4_nJxD9U_tlroGZl3TulAzMKdypGCvpeCoAn9VoQntcdgBr_HX6zzl5bmbIauI8AVp3Zf3wzvyQRvpaiwyfEta8BYZto6rgRGNecoHV-CVwe0Pwjj6nUPLaapsBLB6v/s1600/Ventura+County+Inventory+090313.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv6j4WWe5bSekTx4_nJxD9U_tlroGZl3TulAzMKdypGCvpeCoAn9VoQntcdgBr_HX6zzl5bmbIauI8AVp3Zf3wzvyQRvpaiwyfEta8BYZto6rgRGNecoHV-CVwe0Pwjj6nUPLaapsBLB6v/s320/Ventura+County+Inventory+090313.png" /></a><br />
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At the same time, we are also seeing values begin to come down again from their peak a few months ago. For the same category of homes, see the chart below for the Median Values in Ventura County for homes under $1,000,000. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigRiEX1bqAV3K5RFfD3GRWn1awAUDw5EVw0dqFaXCFYSRGSO5xuIHuutauKLRVDdCaRwDYq4h5zBxXZkWu-cguZLf-DmUzu7J6vMBcW4Y-Z5MXZq3B8vwQDNYND9ZJdrcILQj6_GluX0ts/s1600/Ventura+County+Median+090313.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigRiEX1bqAV3K5RFfD3GRWn1awAUDw5EVw0dqFaXCFYSRGSO5xuIHuutauKLRVDdCaRwDYq4h5zBxXZkWu-cguZLf-DmUzu7J6vMBcW4Y-Z5MXZq3B8vwQDNYND9ZJdrcILQj6_GluX0ts/s320/Ventura+County+Median+090313.png" /></a><br />
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Similarly, inventory in Camarillo is up by 28% over the last 6 months and moving in the right direction. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgam8II9UZEVNDNNRZWPclkrBrVHRJ1l4hnwnzfQfPSXFQFx44gs3eMhGAzwxrg472YpvOolAGyy-rXL7ttlhpH79uTUXkjFW4KdskzgYSDoixJVWEtC-t4LQ1b6R-bB8-NVUYVeNjl4yVe/s1600/Camarillo+Inventory+090313.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgam8II9UZEVNDNNRZWPclkrBrVHRJ1l4hnwnzfQfPSXFQFx44gs3eMhGAzwxrg472YpvOolAGyy-rXL7ttlhpH79uTUXkjFW4KdskzgYSDoixJVWEtC-t4LQ1b6R-bB8-NVUYVeNjl4yVe/s320/Camarillo+Inventory+090313.png" /></a><br />
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And the same holds true for the values in Camarillo of Single Family Homes under $1,000,000. Values are still up by 10% from a year ago, but the are down from the highs we have seen over the last few months. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggW-tpJ99B5-_JtWtbwpgp1HUExV_o8qqgSPl8wh_EGdbD0A-UV-qU3G5-oHZtOKQRDti1U9wpe-1GMPdTQu6LedYEY3TWgIDpCEDdRtno0kfpowioGEpMQrpYM7C3V3AmXgkW-461wHsQ/s1600/Camarillo+Median+090313.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggW-tpJ99B5-_JtWtbwpgp1HUExV_o8qqgSPl8wh_EGdbD0A-UV-qU3G5-oHZtOKQRDti1U9wpe-1GMPdTQu6LedYEY3TWgIDpCEDdRtno0kfpowioGEpMQrpYM7C3V3AmXgkW-461wHsQ/s320/Camarillo+Median+090313.png" /></a><br />
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I share all of this with you to say that, if you have been thinking about selling your home, it is still a good time, but I would not wait long, otherwise, you might miss this window. For buyers, the price declines are a good sign that this is not a long-term bubble. <br />
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If you are thinking about buying or selling in the next 90 days, please call me to discuss your options. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-37704653914204810112013-08-27T08:33:00.000-07:002013-08-27T08:33:51.058-07:00Case-Shiller Home Index - Highest Levels in 5 years!!!Case-Shiller Index came out recently and as you will see from the chart below, the 20-City Index is now showing that values in these markets are now back to levels we saw almost 5 years ago. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6OgLX5rawlwRr-uxX82NHsN49w6Uiu6E-xnXjQk7yG7IxNgToN_Ec1Xrzar54RJ78WFVeXfXEswKemMfWZMvgfSG0jZuAH8QkHjpFxibfeo8CkgUaW0iCfrRqL_xUSPeECmqSX03-64P/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+8.12.44+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6OgLX5rawlwRr-uxX82NHsN49w6Uiu6E-xnXjQk7yG7IxNgToN_Ec1Xrzar54RJ78WFVeXfXEswKemMfWZMvgfSG0jZuAH8QkHjpFxibfeo8CkgUaW0iCfrRqL_xUSPeECmqSX03-64P/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-08-27+at+8.12.44+AM.png" /></a></div><br />
For those of you that have been paying attention, this should not come as any surprise. Values have been on the rise in the last 6 to 9 months for many reasons, but the sharp increase off the bottom has many worried that this is also a bubble that is going to pop just like it did back in 2006/2007. For those of you who want to be frightened by the current market and its similarity to 2005, check out this article from DSNews <a href="http://www.dsnews.com/articles/commentary-dj-vu-all-over-again-2013-08-23">http://www.dsnews.com/articles/commentary-dj-vu-all-over-again-2013-08-23</a>. <br />
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My own feeling is that this jump off the bottom was inevitable. So many people had been waiting and waiting to buy that once it appeared we had it the bottom, there was bound to be an increase. I do expect that the big increases will slow down over the the next quarter as we move into the Fall and Winter seasons which are typically slower because people are paying attention to getting back into their lives after summer and then the business of the Holiday Season. But in addition to that, we are starting to see inventory levels rise and that will also begin to slow things down. As more and more property becomes available to sell, the competition to buy those properties is beginning to wade. I have taken more calls in the last 2 months from people that tell me "I think its finally time for me to sell." that I have at any time in the last 7 years. <br />
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Most of the time, when you have a bubble that is ready to pop, it is because it has become bigger than it should be. Outside influences that aren't normal and pressuring it to go higher and higher. In this market, I think the values have risen for good reasons, normal reasons. Buyers looking for opportunities to own a home, move up or finally buy that rental property. Investors looking to buy low and sell high. The only unnatural element is the subsidized interest rates. As we see those rise, and the first step has already begun, it will also put pressure on values increases to slow down or stop. But, it appears that we are now in a market that is still favorable to Sellers who now have values back at levels that many thought they would never see again, and for Buyers who can still take advantage of lower borrowing costs and values that are still increasing. <br />
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If you need any help or would like a confidential review of your situation, I would look forward to hearing from you. Have a great day!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-91530765960139599972013-08-12T10:05:00.002-07:002013-08-12T10:05:50.654-07:00Ventura County Real Estate Market Update - August 2013<img style="visibility:hidden;width:0px;height:0px;" border=0 width=0 height=0 src="http://c.gigcount.com/wildfire/IMP/CXNID=2000002.0NXC/bT*xJmx*PTEzNzYzMjYzNTAwNjUmcHQ9MTM3NjMyNzA1Mjc1NCZwPTE4MjU5MSZkPSZnPTImbz*5MjNkN2QzNmU*YzM*N2Q*ODNm/MzcxY2Y3MDE*YWU2ZSZvZj*w.gif" /><object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" id="Empressr_Viewer" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0" width="500" height="374.5762711864407"><param name="movie" value="http://www.empressr.com/empressrflx/Empressr_Viewer.swf?token=iPULn2+qyPc=&loc=http://www.empressr.com/&type=Viewer" /><param name="quality" value="high" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="sameDomain" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed src="http://www.empressr.com/empressrflx/Empressr_Viewer.swf?token=iPULn2+qyPc=&loc=http://www.empressr.com/&type=Viewer" quality="high" bgcolor="#000000" allowFullScreen="true" name="Empressr_Viewer" align="middle" play="true" loop="false" quality="high" allowScriptAccess="sameDomain" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="374.5762711864407" pluginspage="http://www.adobe.com/go/getflashplayer" FlashVars="gig_lt=1376326350065&gig_pt=1376327052754&gig_g=2"></embed> <param name="FlashVars" value="gig_lt=1376326350065&gig_pt=1376327052754&gig_g=2" /></object>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-89744087780503444592013-07-01T11:44:00.000-07:002013-07-01T11:44:38.186-07:00Is now a good time to sell your home?For many of you, the real estate market drop since the mortgage crisis has put your home sale on hold. With values down on average by 35%, it was hard for people to give up on the equity they had built over time and walk away with nothing or, at the best, a lot less equity than they thought they would have when it came time to sell. As a result, if you could make it through the tough times of this cycle and hang on to your real estate, you are feeling much better today about your valuation. If you haven't checked lately, call me for an update on what your property might be worth in this market. (Or you can go to this link <a href="http://2cidirect.com/home_values.asp">http://2cidirect.com/home_values.asp</a> and I will get you the information you need.)<br />
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The latest reports from zillow.com is that we still have 13 million homeowners (over 25% of all homeowners with a mortgage) across the country who are still not regained an equity position. The good news is this is down 31.4% from the 1st Quarter of 2012. Even better news is the way the report is calculated. Zillow does a good job of tracking trends, but any time you have a quickly moving market, it doesn't take into consideration those trends. So, when the market is jumping like it is, the trending is slow to report it. And, with values rising over the last 6 months as quickly as it has, I guarantee these numbers will be getting better the next time Zillow reports. <br />
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So, more of you have equity and because of that we are beginning to see more move-up buyers. Over the last 6 or 7 years since the crash, we have only seen "move-out" sellers. The only "move-up" sellers had a good equity position to begin with or had cash to make the investment and, many, held on to their existing homes to rent them until the market turned around. <br />
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Most people in real estate say that the number factor in valuation is location, location, location. While location is certainly important to your specific valuation, market cycles are determined by the basics of Supply and Demand. Let's look more closely at these factors. <br />
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Supply. This has been a key factor in rising values. During this period of time, because so many have negative equity and because our economy has not been producing enough jobs to drive down the unemployment rate home sales have been dominated by those who have been forced to move. Short Sale, Foreclosure, job relocation, death and divorce dominated the Sellers. As a result, there has been very little inventory on the market. In Ventura County, for Single Family homes under $1.0 million, we still only have apx. 1.1 months of inventory on the market. A normal market would have 2 to 3 months of inventory. <br />
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Demand. This has also contributed to rising values. As the economy and values have stabilized, so many first-time homebuyers that were sitting on the sidelines have finally decided it is time to jump in while times are still good and values are relatively still low. Secondly, any time you have a cycle that appears to be at the price bottom, smart investors will be sure to jump in and that has certainly happened with regard to the real estate markets. Investor demand has been high and that increased demand has made it very hard for normal sellers to compete with because they are usually buying with "all-cash". <br />
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So, with all that, why sell today if values appear to be on the rise? <br />
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First, interest rates over the last few months are up by over .5% and I have heard more stories than I would like to tell of buyers who did not have their loan locked, rates went up and now they don't qualify for the purchase that they were under contract for. This increase will certainly eliminate some from the market and, for the short term, should also cause a some to jump in thinking that the low rates are over and "I need to get something done now". <br />
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Second, as values continue to increase, you will begin to see more move-up buyers and as this happens, we will begin to see inventory levels rise. We have already seen that here in Ventura County. Month-over-Month, we have seen a 30% rise in Single-Family inventory levels just in the last 30 days for homes valued under $1.0 million. This increase in inventory levels will cause pressure on value increases as there is more options for buyers. <br />
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Third, investor demand is beginning to wane. With values up in Ventura County by 18% from a year ago and rents virtually stable (maybe up 2% to 3%) the returns for investing in real estate is much less attractive than it was 6 months ago. <br />
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And, lastly, there are always more buyers in the Summer months. This trend is true in most normal markets. While buyers don't stop during the holidays, many families that don't accomplish their purchase by the end of summer have a tendency to put it on the back-burner until the holidays are complete or until the next school year begins to wind down again. <br />
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All of these things say to me that this is a great time to sell your home. The market needs you. If you have been thinking that it might be time...it probably is. Now is a good time to sell, so call me today for a confidential evaluation of your home and your situation so you and your family can take advantage of this market. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-24141266642822829842013-06-26T12:11:00.002-07:002013-06-26T12:11:10.972-07:00New Home Sales at 5 year high!<a href="http://viddy.it/8nEig3">30 Second Real Estate Update</a><br />
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New Homes Sales at highest level since 2008 and consumer confidence highest level in 5 years. These are all good news for Current Homeowners and potential Sellers in this market, but there are indicators on the horizon that these large increases won't last. <br />
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Interest Rates are rising. We have certainly seen the bottom, at least for now. As rates continue to rise, it will make home ownership less affordable relatively speaking. This will cause some pressure on the demand side. <br />
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Investor appetite also appears to be fading. In the markets like Southern California where we have seen a dramatic rise in values, that eats into returns for investors who are wanting to buy and hold. It also diminishes opportunity for those who were in the market of buying and flipping. This will also impact the demand side of the business. <br />
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These are just two of the things that should begin to stabilize market values. So, if you are thinking about selling, now is still a really good time to do so. Call me to set up a private, one-on-one real estate strategy session today. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-52814475116141063422013-06-24T08:40:00.001-07:002013-06-24T08:40:15.733-07:00Real Estate Values Up 22% from 2 years agoReal Estate Values are up 22% in Ventura County from 2 years ago. There are many reasons why that is the case which we will evaluate over the next few weeks. Have a great real estate day!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMPa-wWLnIDbl8hyphenhyphenefBT5nBrw23sM5FkonM-vbj8XRDfPSYKp0rRyUromuU01Z3PyNOpIQv3wO-igYAFDIljl_Y0yLRqLq62qeRk-5kLbatzZ3hZKjnKn9z_SdpEJg7y8duuraF0TTSye/s1600/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMPa-wWLnIDbl8hyphenhyphenefBT5nBrw23sM5FkonM-vbj8XRDfPSYKp0rRyUromuU01Z3PyNOpIQv3wO-igYAFDIljl_Y0yLRqLq62qeRk-5kLbatzZ3hZKjnKn9z_SdpEJg7y8duuraF0TTSye/s1600/CMM_Report_MedianSoldPrice_chart.jpg" height="242" width="320" /></a></div>
<a href="http://viddy.it/zOIM1w">http://viddy.it/zOIM1w</a><br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-41461449185536591422013-06-19T10:14:00.000-07:002013-06-19T10:14:29.761-07:00What if? <br />
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My focus for this blog is usually to update my friends, family, clients and others on what is happening in the world of real estate. But today, I just felt moved to share a different topic with everyone. </div>
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I just had the chance to listen to the new single by my friend @johnondrasik called "What If". He is the classic American story. His whole life he had a dream! He stayed focus on that dream, worked hard and has now found success...as a Father! Oh yes, he's also a successful musician and an example to us all through his lyrics and his actions. I am proud of him and am not surprised at his latest song. As art goes, it can always be interpreted in many ways, but the theme is consistent with a book I am reading now called "Peace Be Upon You" by Zachary Karabell. In this book he describes so many times in human history when Muslims, Christians and Jews have come together, in peace, to make their lives and the lives of those around them a better. He describes in these times were these very different groups have come together to live in peace. He believes that "there is a possibility of peace and constructive coexistence between Muslims, Christians, and Jews - and more to the point, between believing Muslims, Christians, and Jews who, in their heart of hearts, think that their creed and their creed alone reflects God's will."</div>
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We are a divided country in a divided world. We segregate ourselves into pockets of those that are most familiar with us and to us. Families, religions, nationalities, race, color, political affiliations, economics, sexuality, education, etc. Some of these groups outline very real differences in how and what people believe, but many times these differences are perceptions that have been developed over time that take hold in our hearts and in our minds and in our societies and they become very difficult to break. John's new song asks a new question. "What if?" Maybe this question has been around for all of human history and this is what has caused these walls to break down over time. But, in these times where it seems there is discontent and separation at every turn, it feels like a new question. "What if?" "What if I had your heart? What if you wore my scars? What if you were me and what if I were you? What if I cried with your eyes?" </div>
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I believe that this is it. These are the things that bring us together. We pump the same blood, we cry the same tears, we scar the same scars. We all want to love and be loved. All the rest is just noise. What would happen in this world if we spent more time focussing on the things that we have in common. Start each new day believing that my brother, my neighbor, my co-worker, my enemy, my congregation have so many things in common. What would happen in this world? </div>
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Is it possible? Is it possible to come together first before we begin to see where things are so different? I know its utopia and I know that I am a dreamer, but I believe its possible. We will always fight for the things that we believe in. We will always stand up to protect those that we love. But if first we focus on the things that we have in common, it might change our approach, it might change our world. So I join @johnondrasik by encouraging you to "Take a chance for a minute, jump in it, imagine if you asked yourself for a minute...What if?" </div>
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You can find John's new song on iTunes at <a data-mce-href="http://ow.ly/lXuz2" href="http://ow.ly/lXuz2">http://ow.ly/lXuz2 </a>OR at http://www.fiveforfighting.com </div>
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Have a great day!</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-11619477659498917692013-05-28T09:25:00.000-07:002013-06-11T22:32:44.175-07:00Ventura County Inventory Levels are Rising!Is the rush finally over? Is this bubble starting to lose steam?<br/><br/>Core Logic came out today with a report stating that its index had the strongest gain since 2006. There data suggests that year-over-year gains in thier index are 10.2% from March 2012 to March 2013. That's right...2006. Remember the days of 2006? That was the peak of the bubble. Because of a lack of inventory and high demand from investors and regular buyers, values have been on the rise.<br/><br/>However, for the first time in a while, we are beginning to see cracks in the inventory numbers. There are pockets of inventory in Camarillo where we are beginning to see a rise. In Camarillo, values from $400,000 to $650,000 inventory is up 16%. In all of Ventura County we are seeing increases in all categories except for single family homes from $250,000 and under. Now, having said that, the numbers are still very, very low. For single family homes in Ventura County under $1,000,000, inventory levels of homes on the Active market is still less than 1 month. Normal markets would see inventory levels about 3 to 4 months.<br/><br/><a href="http://2ciwordfromthewise.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/inventory.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image" id="i-391" alt="Image" src="http://2ciwordfromthewise.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/inventory.jpg?w=345" /></a><br/><br/>This is still a Sellers market, so if you have a friend who is thinking about selling, make sure you have them call me right away to make sure they don't miss this attractive time for them to be selling. You never know when this market will shift again.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4782735382252502741.post-39180738616640156362013-04-26T09:58:00.000-07:002013-06-11T22:32:44.169-07:00April 26 Real Estate Market Update - Sellers Market ending<a title="April 26 Real Estate Market Update - Sellers Market ending" href="http://www.viddy.com/1wisedad/v/april-26-real-estate-market-update-sellers-market-lv3U7K">April 26 Real Estate Market Update - Sellers Market ending</a><br/><br/>Recent reports show that price gains may be slowing and that inventory levels are beginning to bottom out. When you combine that with higher interest rates coming in 2014, it appears that this summer may be the end of the current Seller's Market.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16123140976088775653noreply@blogger.com0