Inventory Levels Finally Starting to Rise

It has been quite some time that inventory levels have been at the rock bottom. Over the last 60 days, we have seen more and more homeowners decide to take advantage of the increase in value and get their home on the market. As you will see below, Ventura County Inventory levels for Single Family Homes under $1,000,000 are up by 46%. That's right...46% from 6 months ago.



At the same time, we are also seeing values begin to come down again from their peak a few months ago. For the same category of homes, see the chart below for the Median Values in Ventura County for homes under $1,000,000.



Similarly, inventory in Camarillo is up by 28% over the last 6 months and moving in the right direction.



And the same holds true for the values in Camarillo of Single Family Homes under $1,000,000. Values are still up by 10% from a year ago, but the are down from the highs we have seen over the last few months.



I share all of this with you to say that, if you have been thinking about selling your home, it is still a good time, but I would not wait long, otherwise, you might miss this window. For buyers, the price declines are a good sign that this is not a long-term bubble.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in the next 90 days, please call me to discuss your options.

Case-Shiller Home Index - Highest Levels in 5 years!!!

Case-Shiller Index came out recently and as you will see from the chart below, the 20-City Index is now showing that values in these markets are now back to levels we saw almost 5 years ago.

For those of you that have been paying attention, this should not come as any surprise. Values have been on the rise in the last 6 to 9 months for many reasons, but the sharp increase off the bottom has many worried that this is also a bubble that is going to pop just like it did back in 2006/2007. For those of you who want to be frightened by the current market and its similarity to 2005, check out this article from DSNews http://www.dsnews.com/articles/commentary-dj-vu-all-over-again-2013-08-23.

My own feeling is that this jump off the bottom was inevitable. So many people had been waiting and waiting to buy that once it appeared we had it the bottom, there was bound to be an increase. I do expect that the big increases will slow down over the the next quarter as we move into the Fall and Winter seasons which are typically slower because people are paying attention to getting back into their lives after summer and then the business of the Holiday Season. But in addition to that, we are starting to see inventory levels rise and that will also begin to slow things down. As more and more property becomes available to sell, the competition to buy those properties is beginning to wade. I have taken more calls in the last 2 months from people that tell me "I think its finally time for me to sell." that I have at any time in the last 7 years.

Most of the time, when you have a bubble that is ready to pop, it is because it has become bigger than it should be. Outside influences that aren't normal and pressuring it to go higher and higher. In this market, I think the values have risen for good reasons, normal reasons. Buyers looking for opportunities to own a home, move up or finally buy that rental property. Investors looking to buy low and sell high. The only unnatural element is the subsidized interest rates. As we see those rise, and the first step has already begun, it will also put pressure on values increases to slow down or stop. But, it appears that we are now in a market that is still favorable to Sellers who now have values back at levels that many thought they would never see again, and for Buyers who can still take advantage of lower borrowing costs and values that are still increasing.

If you need any help or would like a confidential review of your situation, I would look forward to hearing from you. Have a great day!

Ventura County Real Estate Market Update - August 2013

Is now a good time to sell your home?

For many of you, the real estate market drop since the mortgage crisis has put your home sale on hold.  With values down on average by 35%, it was hard for people to give up on the equity they had built over time and walk away with nothing or, at the best, a lot less equity than they thought they would have when it came time to sell.  As a result, if you could make it through the tough times of this cycle and hang on to your real estate, you are feeling much better today about your valuation.  If you haven't checked lately, call me for an update on what your property might be worth in this market. (Or you can go to this link http://2cidirect.com/home_values.asp and I will get you the information you need.)

The latest reports from zillow.com is that we still have 13 million homeowners (over 25% of all homeowners with a mortgage) across the country who are still not regained an equity position.  The good news is this is down 31.4% from the 1st Quarter of 2012.  Even better news is the way the report is calculated.  Zillow does a good job of tracking trends, but any time you have a quickly moving market, it doesn't take into consideration those trends.  So, when the market is jumping like it is, the trending is slow to report it.  And, with values rising over the last 6 months as quickly as it has, I guarantee these numbers will be getting better the next time Zillow reports.

So, more of you have equity and because of that we are beginning to see more move-up buyers.  Over the last 6 or 7 years since the crash, we have only seen "move-out" sellers.  The only "move-up" sellers had a good equity position to begin with or had cash to make the investment and, many, held on to their existing homes to rent them until the market turned around.

Most people in real estate say that the number factor in valuation is location, location, location.  While location is certainly important to your specific valuation, market cycles are determined by the basics of Supply and Demand.  Let's look more closely at these factors.

Supply.  This has been a key factor in rising values.  During this period of time, because so many have negative equity and because our economy has not been producing enough jobs to drive down the unemployment rate home sales have been dominated by those who have been forced to move.  Short Sale, Foreclosure, job relocation, death and divorce dominated the Sellers.  As a result, there has been very little inventory on the market.  In Ventura County, for Single Family homes under $1.0 million, we still only have apx. 1.1 months of inventory on the market.  A normal market would have 2 to 3 months of inventory.

Demand. This has also contributed to rising values.  As the economy and values have stabilized, so many first-time homebuyers that were sitting on the sidelines have finally decided it is time to jump in while times are still good and values are relatively still low.  Secondly, any time you have a cycle that appears to be at the price bottom, smart investors will be sure to jump in and that has certainly happened with regard to the real estate markets.  Investor demand has been high and that increased demand has made it very hard for normal sellers to compete with because they are usually buying with "all-cash".

So, with all that, why sell today if values appear to be on the rise?

First, interest rates over the last few months are up by over .5% and I have heard more stories than I would like to tell of buyers who did not have their loan locked, rates went up and now they don't qualify for the purchase that they were under contract for.  This increase will certainly eliminate some from the market and, for the short term, should also cause a some to jump in thinking that the low rates are over and "I need to get something done now".

Second, as values continue to increase, you will begin to see more move-up buyers and as this happens, we will begin to see inventory levels rise.  We have already seen that here in Ventura County. Month-over-Month, we have seen a 30% rise in Single-Family inventory levels just in the last 30 days for homes valued under $1.0 million.  This increase in inventory levels will cause pressure on value increases as there is more options for buyers.

Third, investor demand is beginning to wane.  With values up in Ventura County by 18% from a year ago and rents virtually stable (maybe up 2% to 3%) the returns for investing in real estate is much less attractive than it was 6 months ago.

And, lastly, there are always more buyers in the Summer months.  This trend is true in most normal markets.  While buyers don't stop during the holidays, many families that don't accomplish their purchase by the end of summer have a tendency to put it on the back-burner until the holidays are complete or until the next school year begins to wind down again.

All of these things say to me that this is a great time to sell your home.  The market needs you. If you have been thinking that it might be time...it probably is.  Now is a good time to sell, so call me today for a confidential evaluation of your home and your situation so you and your family can take advantage of this market.

New Home Sales at 5 year high!

30 Second Real Estate Update

New Homes Sales at highest level since 2008 and consumer confidence highest level in 5 years.  These are all good news for Current Homeowners and potential Sellers in this market, but there are indicators on the horizon that these large increases won't last.

Interest Rates are rising. We have certainly seen the bottom, at least for now.  As rates continue to rise, it will make home ownership less affordable relatively speaking.  This will cause some pressure on the demand side.

Investor appetite also appears to be fading.  In the markets like Southern California where we have seen a dramatic rise in values, that eats into returns for investors who are wanting to buy and hold.  It also diminishes opportunity for those who were in the market of buying and flipping.  This will also impact the demand side of the business.

These are just two of the things that should begin to stabilize market values.  So, if you are thinking about selling, now is still a really good time to do so.  Call me to set up a private, one-on-one real estate strategy session today.

Real Estate Values Up 22% from 2 years ago

Real Estate Values are up 22% in Ventura County from 2 years ago.  There are many reasons why that is the case which we will evaluate over the next few weeks.  Have a great real estate day!

http://viddy.it/zOIM1w

What if?

My focus for this blog is usually to update my friends, family, clients and others on what is happening in the world of real estate.  But today, I just felt moved to share a different topic with everyone.  

I just had the chance to listen to the new single by my friend @johnondrasik called "What If".  He is the classic American story. His whole life he had a dream! He stayed focus on that dream, worked hard and has now found success...as a Father! Oh yes, he's also a successful musician and an example to us all through his lyrics and his actions. I am proud of him and am not surprised at his latest song.  As art goes, it can always be interpreted in many ways, but the theme is consistent with a book I am reading now called "Peace Be Upon You" by Zachary Karabell. In this book he describes so many times in human history when Muslims, Christians and Jews have come together, in peace, to make their lives and the lives of those around them a better. He describes in these times were these very different groups have come together to live in peace. He believes that "there is a possibility of peace and constructive coexistence between Muslims, Christians, and Jews - and more to the point, between believing Muslims, Christians, and Jews who, in their heart of hearts, think that their creed and their creed alone reflects God's will."

We are a divided country in a divided world. We segregate ourselves into pockets of those that are most familiar with us and to us.  Families, religions, nationalities, race, color, political affiliations, economics, sexuality, education, etc. Some of these groups outline very real differences in how and what people believe, but many times these differences are perceptions that have been developed over time that take hold in our hearts and in our minds and in our societies and they become very difficult to break. John's new song asks a new question. "What if?" Maybe this question has been around for all of human history and this is what has caused these walls to break down over time.  But, in these times where it seems there is discontent and separation at every turn, it feels like a new question. "What if?" "What if I had your heart? What if you wore my scars? What if you were me and what if I were you? What if I cried with your eyes?" 

I believe that this is it. These are the things that bring us together. We pump the same blood, we cry the same tears, we scar the same scars. We all want to love and be loved. All the rest is just noise. What would happen in this world if we spent more time focussing on the things that we have in common. Start each new day believing that my brother, my neighbor, my co-worker, my enemy, my congregation have so many things in common. What would happen in this world? 

Is it possible? Is it possible to come together first before we begin to see where things are so different? I know its utopia and I know that I am a dreamer, but I believe its possible. We will always fight for the things that we believe in. We will always stand up to protect those that we love. But if first we focus on the things that we have in common, it might change our approach, it might change our world. So I join @johnondrasik by encouraging you to "Take a chance for a minute, jump in it, imagine if you asked yourself for a minute...What if?" 

You can find John's new song on iTunes at http://ow.ly/lXuz2 OR at http://www.fiveforfighting.com 

Have a great day!