...and the summer bubble continues!!!

Ok.  Last month, the Case-Shiller index had the largest month-to-month gain in its history.  As I outlined in my last blog entry, I suspected that most of this increase was due to an overall lack of inventory pushing values higher.  Well, today, Case-Shiller came out with the news that their index has jumped by 6.9% from the 1st quarter of 2012 to the 2nd quarter of 2012.  This also is the largest gain, quarter-to-quarter, in the history of the index.  In addition, their 20-City index rose by 2.3% just from May to June. This is also the largest month-to-month gain (last month was 2.2%). For all the details, please go to the Standard & Poors website for details.  http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

So we are seeing some sustained growth which is really good news, but I wanted to put the inventory issue into perspective.  In Ventura County, we have had 8,461 sales of Residential Properties in the last 12 months.  As of today, we have 1,323 Residential Properties on the Active market.  That is an inventory of 1.88 months.  To get more specific, in Camarillo alone, we have had 932 sales of Residential Properties in the last 12 months.  As of today, we only have 115 Residential Properties on the Active market.  That is an inventory of only 1.5 months.  That is insanely low.  A natural/neutral inventory of homes where it is not having an impact on value one way or another is typically around 4 months.  Someone asked me this past weekend at my Open House at 350 Commons Park Dr. in Camarillo why inventories were so low.  There are a few basic reasons.  First, if you own a home today, unless you are forced to sell via a distressed sale (Short Sale or Foreclosure) or a job or life relocation, then you are likely going to do everything you can to hang onto your real estate and what is still a depressed level.  Second, the level of new bank-owned homes has not jumped like most have expected.  This is the infamous "Shadow Inventory". Most experts are now predicting that this "Shadow Inventory" will not have a dramatic impact on values over the next few years as we continue to see the level of bank-owned homes decline.

Unless we see some major shifts in the market for Seller's I would anticipate that the inventory levels would stay low and that values would continue to rise until we get back to some normalcy as it relates to the numbers of buyers and sellers.  Expect that it will be a Seller's market through the end of this year.

If you are thinking about Selling your home, now is a great time to call me to discuss strategy.  If you are thinking about Buying a home, there is no time better to be represented by a Realtor who is working hard to quickly identify opportunities that fit your requirements than now.  Do not try to do this on your own. I appreciate you taking the time to read this blog entry and...as always...if you know anyone who is thinking about buying or selling in the next few months, your advocacy is my greatest form of advertising.  Thanks for your referral!!!