30 Sec Real Estate Market Update

http://www.viddy.com/video/efa8a727-b27f-4265-ba9a-ccfe4282464e

New Info on Foreclosure Data in California

New reports are out this morning from the people at foreclosure.com.  They are stating that in October of 2012, the foreclosure cancellations in California were up 62.1% from the month prior and they think that the main source of the increase is the new law that will go into affect in January called the California Homeowners Bill of Rights.  One of the primary features of this law is to prevent "dual-tracking".  Basically what that means is that if you are under consideration for a loan modification or have submitted a request for a Short Sale, your lender has to CANCEL your foreclosure proceedings.  In the past, the lenders have been able to process your foreclosure at the same time your are in process for a Short Sale or Loan Modification.  That way, if you were denied for either, the bank was still in the position to move forward and complete the foreclosure right away.  

While this is a great new law for homeowners, it will have a continue negative affect on the amount of inventory that is available in California.  As I have said in my last few blog posts, the level of homes available to buy in California is down to almost record levels and that will have a dramatic impact on values.  When demand is high (and it is high) and inventory is low, it almost always means that values will be on the rise.  The National Association of Realtors is projecting that, assuming we avoid the infamous "fiscal cliff", that real estate values will rise nationally by 5.1% next year.  If the inventory levels remain at their existing levels, I believe values in California, Ventura County and Camarillo and surrounding communities will rise more than that.  

If you think that you may have to, or want to sell in the next 6 months, the market should be support higher values than you thought were achievable 6 months ago.  

One other thing to note today that we certainly want to keep our eye on is the delinquency data.  LPS, one of the country's largest servicing companies is stating that foreclosure starts in September suddenly spiked by 7.7% from the month earlier.  They are stating that most of the increase came in homeowners who are now 30 days late on their mortgage.  This "new" activity is troubling and it points to continued weakness in the overall economy.  

Please let me know if you know anyone who is thinking about buying or selling in the next 6 months.  It is the best time ever to use a Realtor who knows the market and understands the foreclosure and Short Sale process.  

Sellers Market - Inventory Week of November 12, 2012

If you have been thinking about selling your home...now is one of the best times we have seen in recent history due to a lack of inventory on the market in Camarillo and Ventura County. As you will see from the chart below, most categories of Single Family Homes in Camarillo and Ventura County have apx. 1 month or less of Active Inventory.  To give you an example, in the $400,000 to $650,000 range, there are only 18 homes on the market in Camarillo as of 11/12/2012 per the MLS.  In the last 12 months, in that same category, there were 324 homes sold.

[caption id="attachment_107" align="alignleft" width="555"] Low Inventory means prices will continue to increase.[/caption]

If the pace of sales maintains at the current levels then we only have .7 months worth of inventory available for new buyers.  All expectations are that demand will continue to be high as long as interest rates stay low and the economy doesn't fall back into a recession.  As a Seller, what does that mean to you? Well, with fewer homes on the market it means that you get to be more aggressive with your price.   So, if you are thinking about selling your Camarillo home or your home anywhere in Ventura County, today's market is much more positive than it was earlier this year and prior.So, please take some time and head to my website where you can complete a form to get more information on what the value of your home looks like in this new market.  See the link below:

http://2cidirect.com/free_home_valuation.asp

Case Shiller says home prices are up again!

The Case Shiller Index is one of the most nationally recognized indicators on the overall health of the real estate markets around the country and the came out today with their report that states that we had another national rise of 2% year-over-year from August 2011 to August 2012. The closest big city index for Camarillo Sellers and others in Ventura County real estate is the Los Angeles index and it reflected a 2.1% year-over-year gain as well.  You can read the full report at http://bit.ly/SvgbC5.

However, they did have some long-term housing concerns.  The most near-term risk the the infamous "fiscal cliff" that we face the beginning of 2013.  The consensus is that the DC politicians will figure out whatever they need to do to pass the buck on this down the road to the next president, the next Congress to deal with.  But, given the politics of the day, there is certainly some risk that we will hit January 1, 2013 without a solution to this large problem.  If it does happen, it will have a negative impact on both the equity markets and the real estate markets.

The second risk identified as a more long-term risk is that of the Baby Boomer generation selling and downsizing their current homes.  This may leave a gap of buyers at the higher end causing larger homes to come down further in value than they already have.

Zillow.com reports that Camarillo values are up 4.3% year-over-year and with national prices rising now for the last few months, I would expect that trend to continue in the short term.  But, if you are thinking about selling your home in the 93010 or 93012 zip code, now may be a good time to take advantage of the window of opportunity that presents itself in this market.

In the meantime...have a great day!