Safety in Real Estate...in spite of our fear!

"Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

It seems like our world these days is so unstable.  Maybe it's just me but it seems like everything is in flux.  The stock market hits record high and then plunges. Interest rates are at their lowest levels in the history of the mortgage market yet every day we keep hearing they are bound to jump. What happens to the housing market when that happens?  Real Estate markets in Ventura County and around the US have plummeted since 2006, hit bottom around 2012, jumped by 20-25% over the next 12 months or so and then have begun to show signs of weakening.  ISIS and Al Queda continue to exert their presence on the World's stage causing a heightened sense of fear.  And now we need to be concerned about our neighbor or co-worker or my child's friend coming down with Ebola.  Peak election season always causes worry because politicians on both side convince us to vote for them or their party because of something we should be afraid of.  Fear inspires us.  It motivates us to take action...sometimes to act and sometimes to cower. Fear sells. Fear gets our attention because it makes us sit up and listen. Even in Real Estate it works.  "Buy now before prices go higher." "Sell now before prices drop even further." "Be aggressive with your offer so that you compete with the multiple buyers." "Take this offer.  It might be the only one you get."  See how that works?  Crazy.  

Yet, with all of this fear and instability happening around us, for most of us, we can always find peace and comfort AT HOME. This is the place where we usually find comfort and rest. It's the place we long for. I saw the quote above from FDR and thought it was so true.  He was speaking about the economics of HOME and that is certainly true.  But, to be honest, most of my clients aren't really thinking about the economics when they walk through the door for the first time.  It's more emotional than that.  They are asking themselves questions like..."Does it feel right?" Does it fit my family?" Can I see myself here long-term?" "How's the neighborhood?" "How are the schools?" "Does it have a pool?" "Does it have an attached garage with direct access?" "Is the backyard big enough for my kids?" "Is the backyard small enough that I don't have to spend all weekend caring for it?" Each one of us has our own needs when it comes to housing and that is what makes my job enjoyable.  Each client has a new set of parameters that create the ideal home and it's my job to get as close to that ideal as possible.  Sure, money plays a part.  As FDR says, "purchased with common sense" is important.  Today I suspect he would replace "paid for in full" with "paid for with financing you can afford".  Money is a factor, but once you have hit that parameter, the rest is all emotion.  

During the most difficult of times in real estate when values began to plummet in 2006, the thing I had to remind people who were losing their home is that HOME truly is where your heart is.  I know it is trite, but it's true.  Like any investment, you take risk and most of the time, if you are able to own a home long enough, it will also payoff financially, but when it doesn't you have to remember that HOME is where you are with your family and those who love you.  

I hope you find peace today in your HOME. If you are not at "Real Estate peace" and would like help finding it, please call me for an immediate, peaceful, confidential consultation.  

Have a great day!

Are US Real Estate Markets really rolling?

Today there was an article by Jason Lange from Reuters that the "U.S. housing recovery rolls on as groundbreaking rises".  Here is the link to the article http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSKCN0I619U20141017

The article goes on to explain that people are starting to build again.  Normally, people look to this number to dictate whether or not the Housing Markets are strong.  Personally, I think there are other indicators of the Housing Market strength than this number.  Certainly, by itself, it is meaningless.  You have to take into consideration all of the factors before looking at this one number and making a judgement that anything is "rolling" anywhere.  Obviously, being a Realtor, I am always looking for good news to share about the real estate markets. We have been through so many years of pain that all signs of good news come with hope.  However, given how hard the U.S. Housing market got it, you can't blame me for being a little skeptical about the good news especially when the market seems so fragile.  Let me explain.

There are 3 things I am worried about.

1. Yes, values are on the rise.

But, if you look at the data closely, you will see that in Ventura County, the Median Price of single-family homes increased by 43% from December 2011 to July of 2013.  Amazing!!!  But why did that happen? Was it sustainable? Most of the growth during this time frame came from a massive influx of investor capital not only into Ventura County, but into any real estate market that Wall Street Capital thought could produce a return.  Much of this capital was buy and hold strategy taking a lot of the normal inventory off the market permanently, or at least until the strategy turns to "buy-hold-SELL".  What happens then? What happens when Wall Street decides that its time to sell these assets? Will there be enough non-Wall Street buyers to sustain prices? Most think that each investor will have their own thoughts and needs on when it is the right time to sell these assets so the impact won't be as great as the increases I have outlined above.  Since July of 2013, values are only up 1.3%.  This is actually below the rate of U.S. Inflation in August of 2014 of 1.7% as outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

2. Interest rates can't sustain these levels.  The article even mentions this when it says that the Housing Market "suffered a setback last year" (right about July of 2013) "when interest rates spiked".

I don't even think we will need a "spike" for rising rates to have an impact on this market.  When the average homeowner has a rate of 3.75% on their 30-year mortgage, will they make the same move-up purchase they would have if rates are now 5%? Will the First-Time-Homebuyer be able to even enter the market if rates are at 6%? I suspect not unless the U.S. economy or the DJIA is up significantly to offset the higher rate.  We will have to see continued declines in the jobless rate and similar increases in the Labor Force Participation Rate and overall wage growth in order to sustain increasing interest rates.

3. My last concern is the increasing trends we are seeing in the level of available inventory.  Inventory of single-family homes in Ventura County is up 58.9% from the same time a year ago. While these levels are historically in line with a healthy real estate market, the increasing trend is far from healthy.  What will happen to these inventory levels when we begin to see the homes that are breaking ground now hit the market? With groundbreaking up 6.3%, per the article, I am concerned that the additional increases of homes available for sale will continue to put downward pressure on home values going forward.

On the surface, things are better.  I am happy Wall Street money came in and injected the markets with some much needed capital, but let's not be deceived by the reality of the situation.  These markets are much more fragile than it appears.  If you are thinking about selling or buying in this market, give me a call so we can sort through your goals and how they fit into the existing markets and, remember, all real estate is local, so your specific market might look completely different than the general markets outlined above.  Call me anytime for a confidential evaluation.  Have a great day!

John Wise