Ventura County Real Estate Update July 2014

Values for Residential homes in Ventura County have remained stable during the last few months with values up only .2% from the same Quarter a year ago.  But, there are 2 things that are more interesting about that market that is bound to bring changes in the coming months.  First, the Average Price of Homes for Sale, while it is up 1.8% from a month ago, is actually down 23.6% from the same Quarter a year ago.  In addition, inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply.  This makes for a interesting combination.

The chart above reflects the activity of Homes For Sale and Homes Sold during the last 14 months.  You can easily see the sharp increase we have seen since December of 2013 in the number of Homes For Sale.  This is relatively normal as December is typically the slowest month for new listings, but the rise in Homes For Sale has not corresponded with the number of Homes Sold...certainly not at the same pace.  As a result of that, the inventory levels of homes for sale has risen sharply.  Below is a chart the reflects the rise in inventory levels in Ventura County homes for sale during the same time period as above.

While 2.7 months of inventory is actually a relatively normal number, it is up 78.8% from the same Quarter a year ago.  Sharp changes like this is not healthy for any market and it is bound to have an impact one way or another.  So, what is that impact going to be?  Normally, as suggested above, sharp increases like this to inventory levels with demand staying the same, would normally lead to a decline in values.  So, I would be surprised if over the next few months we don't see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold.  But, the last chart that you see below reflects the Average Price of Homes in Ventura County that are For Sale and that have Sold.  You will see that the changes in the Average Price of Homes For Sale has dropped significantly over time, yet the Average Price of Homes Sold has remained relatively stable.  What does this mean? Well, you would normally expect to see a drop in the Average Price of Homes Sold when you have such a large decline in the Average Price of Homes For Sale.  It appears that, in this market, what has changed has been the Seller's expectations.  The homebuyer is still willing to pay a fair price for the home, but when prices began to rise a little over a year ago, Seller's thought that we were back in 2005/2006 where prices were just going to continue to increase.  Well, as we all know, things are quite different than they were during that time period and there is no longer an endless supply of financing and price increases.

I would anticipate that prices in Ventura County will drop over the next few months and possibly into 2015 as we try to burn off this excess inventory.  But, unless we see something dramatic happen in the market place, I would expect that values will continue to get back onto a more normal growth pattern which is something that all of us would like.  Both buyers and sellers function better when the markets are more predictable.

If you are thinking about selling your home and you are looking for a listing agent in Ventura County, please don't hesitate to let me know.  I would be happy to set up a confidential appointment to review your situation so I can determine if I can help you meet your real estate goals.

You can also find similar information at my website at http://2cidirect.com/ventura-county.asp.