The Case Shiller Index is one of the most nationally recognized indicators on the overall health of the real estate markets around the country and the came out today with their report that states that we had another national rise of 2% year-over-year from August 2011 to August 2012. The closest big city index for Camarillo Sellers and others in Ventura County real estate is the Los Angeles index and it reflected a 2.1% year-over-year gain as well. You can read the full report at http://bit.ly/SvgbC5.
However, they did have some long-term housing concerns. The most near-term risk the the infamous "fiscal cliff" that we face the beginning of 2013. The consensus is that the DC politicians will figure out whatever they need to do to pass the buck on this down the road to the next president, the next Congress to deal with. But, given the politics of the day, there is certainly some risk that we will hit January 1, 2013 without a solution to this large problem. If it does happen, it will have a negative impact on both the equity markets and the real estate markets.
The second risk identified as a more long-term risk is that of the Baby Boomer generation selling and downsizing their current homes. This may leave a gap of buyers at the higher end causing larger homes to come down further in value than they already have.
Zillow.com reports that Camarillo values are up 4.3% year-over-year and with national prices rising now for the last few months, I would expect that trend to continue in the short term. But, if you are thinking about selling your home in the 93010 or 93012 zip code, now may be a good time to take advantage of the window of opportunity that presents itself in this market.
In the meantime...have a great day!
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Is it finally time to sell?
October has been an interesting month. We started out on a very positive tone with the monthly report from RealtyTrac stating that foreclosure filings in Ventura County had slipped almost 23 percent in September from a year earlier. This was a trend that has been developing over the last few months, so it really wasn't surprising. This trend was similar to the changes that California had as well with a 27% drop in year-over-year foreclosure filings. But these reports did come with a caveat from Realty Trac. Per Daren Blomquiest, a VP at Realty Trac "the other foreclosure shoe is instead being carefully lowered to the floor and therefore making little noise in the housing market". But he did make it clear that it is dropping.
So, the shadow inventory is beginning to get dealt with. CoreLogic supported this view with an article in early October stating that the Shadow Inventory had dropped by 10% in July from where we were in the year prior. See chart to the right for details. While there is still a large number of REO Inventory to deal with, it is my belief that this inventory will trickle onto the market here in Ventura County and Camarillo rather than slamming the market with it all at once. It is certainly what I have experienced in my relationships with banks and servicing companies since that beginning of 2012. Their activity level is below what they have been used to which means that this inventory of homes really has not hit the front lines of the REO liquidation firms at this point. It will take a few years to continue to wind down out of this inventory and get back down to the normal levels we had in 2006 and prior.
Also in early October the Fed in their Beige Book report also spent some time talking about the real estate markets in a positive way by noting that "Consumer spending, which represents about 70 percent of the economy, “was generally reported to be flat to up slightly since the last report...". And that "Residential real estate proved to be a bright spot amid an otherwise pedestrian report." The Beige Book also noted that “all twelve Districts reported that existing home sales strengthened, in some cases substantially,” since the last report. It did note that one reason that values had seen an increase is due to the decline in overall residential inventory. I'm not talking about the infamous "shadow inventory" here. This is the overall number of homes on the market. This has been a key to values increasing in Ventura County and in Camarillo real estate. As I write this there are 58 single family homes on the Active market right now in Camarillo. In the last 6 months, we have sold 382 homes. This puts our inventory at less than 1 month. We will continue to see price increases until that number looks more like 3 to 4 months of homes on the market.
The chart below is from zillow.com and it outlines that prices in Camarillo were up 4.3% from the same time last year. But we do have some things to be worried about. On October 22, 2012 Lender Processing Servicers came out with their "first look" mortgage report and while they agreed that the overall foreclosure inventory continued to decline, "the delinquency rate saw a sudden mont-over-month surge. The delinquency rate, which stood at 7.4% in September, hiked up 7.72% from August. And while this number is still down from a year ago, it is certainly something to keep a close eye on. I have always said that if the economy continues at this sluggish rate, we run the risk of seeing the foreclosure rate begin to tick up again.
If you have been thinking about selling your home because of a job change or a change in the size or structure of your family or if you are one of the many who continues to struggle in this economy, there is a window of opportunity with so few homes on the market. Now may be the perfect opportunity to get your house on the market for a premium before we see the market shift again either with an increase in the interest rates or an increase again in foreclosed homes. If you have been thinking about selling your home in Camarillo or anywhere in Ventura County or the west San Fernando Valley, please call me right away for a thorough evaluation of your homes value and whether or not it is the right time for you.
So, the shadow inventory is beginning to get dealt with. CoreLogic supported this view with an article in early October stating that the Shadow Inventory had dropped by 10% in July from where we were in the year prior. See chart to the right for details. While there is still a large number of REO Inventory to deal with, it is my belief that this inventory will trickle onto the market here in Ventura County and Camarillo rather than slamming the market with it all at once. It is certainly what I have experienced in my relationships with banks and servicing companies since that beginning of 2012. Their activity level is below what they have been used to which means that this inventory of homes really has not hit the front lines of the REO liquidation firms at this point. It will take a few years to continue to wind down out of this inventory and get back down to the normal levels we had in 2006 and prior.
Also in early October the Fed in their Beige Book report also spent some time talking about the real estate markets in a positive way by noting that "Consumer spending, which represents about 70 percent of the economy, “was generally reported to be flat to up slightly since the last report...". And that "Residential real estate proved to be a bright spot amid an otherwise pedestrian report." The Beige Book also noted that “all twelve Districts reported that existing home sales strengthened, in some cases substantially,” since the last report. It did note that one reason that values had seen an increase is due to the decline in overall residential inventory. I'm not talking about the infamous "shadow inventory" here. This is the overall number of homes on the market. This has been a key to values increasing in Ventura County and in Camarillo real estate. As I write this there are 58 single family homes on the Active market right now in Camarillo. In the last 6 months, we have sold 382 homes. This puts our inventory at less than 1 month. We will continue to see price increases until that number looks more like 3 to 4 months of homes on the market.
The chart below is from zillow.com and it outlines that prices in Camarillo were up 4.3% from the same time last year. But we do have some things to be worried about. On October 22, 2012 Lender Processing Servicers came out with their "first look" mortgage report and while they agreed that the overall foreclosure inventory continued to decline, "the delinquency rate saw a sudden mont-over-month surge. The delinquency rate, which stood at 7.4% in September, hiked up 7.72% from August. And while this number is still down from a year ago, it is certainly something to keep a close eye on. I have always said that if the economy continues at this sluggish rate, we run the risk of seeing the foreclosure rate begin to tick up again.
If you have been thinking about selling your home because of a job change or a change in the size or structure of your family or if you are one of the many who continues to struggle in this economy, there is a window of opportunity with so few homes on the market. Now may be the perfect opportunity to get your house on the market for a premium before we see the market shift again either with an increase in the interest rates or an increase again in foreclosed homes. If you have been thinking about selling your home in Camarillo or anywhere in Ventura County or the west San Fernando Valley, please call me right away for a thorough evaluation of your homes value and whether or not it is the right time for you.
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